Daily Market Analysis

 

 

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

 

The dollar index fell to around 106.2 on Wednesday but remained close to its highest level in more than five months as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that policymakers are in no rush to cut interest rates.

Key Points:

• Top US central bank officials, including Powell, on Tuesday refrained from offering any guidance on when interest rates might be cut, instead saying that monetary policy should remain restrictive for longer, dampening investor hopes for significant easing this year.
• The comments come after a string of data in recent weeks that has highlighted the strength of the US economy alongside persistent inflation.
• “At this time, given the strength of the labor market and the progress on inflation so far, it is appropriate to allow the restrictive policy to work for longer and let the data and evolving expectations guide us,” Powell said at a forum in Washington.
• Powell’s comments crushed any remaining expectations of near-term Fed rate cuts, with markets pricing in September as the new starting point for the easing cycle, down from June.
• Traders now expect 40 basis points of cuts in 2024, down sharply from the 160 basis points of easing they had expected at the start of the year. (FedWatch)

Gold steady as geopolitical woes face dollar, yields

• Market price 68% chance of rate cut in September – CME

*”Gold prices have shown resilience in the face of rising Treasury yields and a strong US dollar, while finding some support from safe-haven flows in the face of rising geopolitical risks, as market participants continue to watch for Israel’s response to the Iranian attacks.”

• John Rong said any escalation in geopolitical tensions could pave the way for prices to retest their all-time highs.
• Data from the United States has raised questions about the chances of interest rate cuts this year, with many global brokerages backtracking on their expectations that the US Federal Reserve will start cutting rates until September from June.

Canada inflation rises to 2.9% in March

Goldman Sachs stock jumps 3% on surprise 28% earnings and strong revenue

Oil prices fall as demand concerns outweigh supply worries in the Middle East to trade Brent crude at $90.00 and West Texas Intermediate crude at $85.00

• Oil prices have fallen so far this week, with economic headwinds weighing on investor sentiment, capping gains from geopolitical tensions, with the focus on how Israel will respond to the Iranian attack over the weekend.
• “With oil prices highly sensitive to geopolitical risks, the past week has seen some consolidation in place through wait-and-see, with Israel’s response determining whether there could be a wider regional conflict, which could have a significant impact on oil supplies,” said IG market analyst Yes John Rong.
• In China, the world’s largest oil importer, the economy grew faster than expected in the first quarter, but many March indicators, including property investment, retail sales and industrial production, showed that domestic demand remained weak, weighing on overall momentum.

Tesla shares rise after internal email reveals 10% layoff

Bitcoin price holds under $65,000 resistance zone. Bitcoin needs to break above $65,000 and $67,000 to move back into the bullish zone.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2376.39

The first scenario: Buy gold at a break and hold above 2382.74, with a target price of 2389.17 and 2396.51. Alternative scenario: Sell gold at a break and hold below 2371.36, with a price target of 2364.92 and then 2357.56.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $84.37 per barrel

The first scenario: Buying oil at a break and holding steady by closing the candle at the highest level at $84.69, targeting a price of $85.16, then 85.72. Alternative scenario: Selling oil at a break of $84.01, targeting a price of $83.49, then 82.90.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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EURUSD

 

General trend: – Bearish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.06182

The first scenario: sell the euro/dollar at a break of 1.06015, targeting a price of 1.05855, then 1.05642. Alternative scenario: buy the euro/dollar at a break of 1.06242, targeting a price of 1.06427, then 1.06651.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

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GBPUSD

 

Trend: down

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.24517

The first scenario: Selling the pound dollar at a fraction and holding below the level of 1.24256, targeting the price of 1.24058, then 1.23834. Alternative scenario: Buying the pound dollar at a break, and holding steady at a close above 1.24592, targeting the price of 1.24878, then 1.25099.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

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NAS100

 

Trend: down

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 17812

The first scenario: Selling the Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close below 17777, targeting the price of 17736 then 17692. The alternative scenario: Buying the Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close above 17837, targeting the price of 17876 then 17922.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

– Europe CPI (YoY) (Mar) 12:00 PM EDT

– US US Crude Oil Inventories 5:30 PM EDT

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index fell to around 106.2 on Wednesday but remained close to its highest level in over five months as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that policymakers are in no rush to cut interest rates.

“Given the strength of the labor market and the progress on inflation so far, it is appropriate to allow policy to work for longer and allow the data and evolving expectations to guide us,” he said. Earlier, stronger-than-expected US retail sales, inflation, and employment data indicated that the US economy remains strong.

Markets are now pricing in only about 40 basis points of total easing from the Fed this year, down from 160 basis points at the start of the year.

Investors are now looking to more economic data and more comments from Fed officials this week for further guidance.

The dollar steadied near multi-month highs against most major currencies but fell to a 34-year low against the Japanese yen.

Gold prices steadied on Wednesday after rising to record highs last week, as safe-haven demand fueled by geopolitical risks in the Middle East partially offset pressure from rising US dollar yields and Treasury bonds.

Oil prices continued to decline in early trading on Wednesday, as concerns about global demand due to weak economic momentum in China and a potential increase in US commercial inventories outweighed supply concerns from escalating tensions in the Middle East.