Daily Market Analysis

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

• The dollar rose for the second consecutive session as investors re-evaluated the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy expectations.
• Gold stabilized amid hopes that the Federal Reserve would pause, with the rising dollar limiting its gains.
• The US producer price index fell by the largest amount in three and a half years in October.
• US retail sales fell for the first time in seven months.
• US crude inventories rose and production remained at a record high.
• Oil prices fell as US crude inventories rose and demand concerns weighed, trading at $80.74 for Brent crude and $76.43 for West Texas Intermediate crude.
• The price of Bitcoin rose by 5% and appears ready to break through the $38,000 barrier.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for the day is proposed, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, could be between 60% and 75%. If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the alternative scenario condition level, the alternative scenario is then immediately activated, and the first scenario prediction gets cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1,964.67

First scenario: Buy gold on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1,969.26, targeting a price of $1,974.32 and then $1,981.26.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold on the break of $1,961.03, targeting a price of $1,954.58 and then $1,947.23

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $76.25 per barrel

First scenario: Buy oil on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $76.41, targeting a price of $76.86 and then $77.52.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil on the break of $75.99, targeting a price of $75.58 and then $75.09.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.08398

First scenario: Sell EURUSD on the break of $1.08264, targeting a price of $1.08104 and then $1.07891.
Alternative scenario: Buy EURUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.08492, targeting a price of $1.08676 and then $1.08901.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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GBPUSD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.23977

First scenario: Sell GBPUSD on the break of $1.23750, targeting a price of $1.23553 and then $1.23329
Alternative scenario: Buy GBPUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.24087, targeting a price of $1.24372 and then $1.24593.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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NAS100

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $15,866

First scenario: Sell Nasdaq on the break of $15,809, targeting a price of $15,755 and then $15,683.
Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $15,888, targeting a price of $15,951 and then $16,014.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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Economic Calendar

(Times are in GMT+3)

 

• United States: Initial Jobless Claims Index at 16:30.
• United States: Export Price Index (Monthly) at 16:30.
• United States: Import Price Index (Monthly) at 16:30.
• United States, Philadelphia Manufacturing Index at 16:30.

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

• The dollar index rose to around 104.5 on Thursday, up for the second consecutive session as investors re-evaluated their expectations for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy in light of the latest batch of economic data.
• Data released on Wednesday showed that US retail sales fell less than expected in October, adding to signs of economic resilience that will give the central bank more time before cutting interest rates.
• Meanwhile, the dollar is still down by more than 1% this week, as the latest reports on US consumer price and producer price indexes suggested that inflationary pressures are finally easing, bolstering the view that the Federal Reserve may have ended its current cycle of monetary policy tightening.
• The markets now see no chance of a rate hike from the Central Bank in December, and the odds of a rate cut are increasing in the middle of next year.
• The dollar strengthened across all sectors, with the most noticeable buying activity against the New Zealand and Australian dollars.
• Gold prices rose on Thursday, supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve may have reached the end of its tightening cycle, although the rebound in the US dollar kept gains in check.
• Oil prices fell on Thursday, extending losses from the previous session, as signs of increased supplies from the United States weighed against concerns about weak demand for energy from China.