Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

The dollar index held its recent lows around 100.7 on Tuesday, hovering near 14-month lows ahead of the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting, where it is expected to deliver a major interest rate cut.

Gold hovers at record highs

Fed funds futures indicate investors increasingly expect a 50 basis point cut, with markets pricing in a 67% chance of that, while the chance of a smaller 25 basis point cut is 33%, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

Meanwhile, the Bank of England is widely expected to announce that UK interest rates will remain unchanged, while the Bank of Japan is also expected to keep rates on hold but signal a willingness to raise them if expectations materialize.

Elsewhere, gold’s appeal as a safe haven was boosted by some political uncertainty, following reports that Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump faced a second assassination attempt on Sunday.

-Gold sentiment positive amid Fed rate cut hopes, Middle East tensions

-Gold is steady at the start of the Asian session, supported by hopes for a large interest rate cut at this week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

Growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will announce a major interest rate cut could help maintain the value of gold.

Market participants are increasingly betting on a 50 basis point rate cut after recent jobs data showed a weak labor market, although they may be cautious until the Federal Open Market Committee’s decision on Wednesday.

Asian stocks rose on Tuesday while the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields came under pressure, just a day before the start of the Federal Reserve’s expected monetary easing cycle that could see policymakers cut interest rates sharply.

Oil rises on concerns over US production and expectations of a decline in crude inventories, with Brent crude trading at $73.00 and West Texas Intermediate at $69.00.

U.S. crude and light crude futures settled higher in the previous session as the continued impact of Hurricane Francine on production in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico countered concerns about Chinese demand ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates this week, which should prove positive for oil investor sentiment.

More than 12% of crude oil production and 16% of natural gas production in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico remained shut, the U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Protection said Monday.

“Oil prices have managed to recover a bit… a very bearish (state) over the past weeks has called for some near-term stability, with prices previously touching their lowest level since 2021,” said IG market strategist Yip Jun Rong.

“However, the weaker-than-expected performance of Chinese economic data recently may be a source of caution, while the period leading up to the Federal Open Market Committee’s decision on interest rates may limit some of the risk,” Yip added.

Investors are also looking ahead to an expected drop in U.S. crude inventories, which are likely to have fallen by about 200,000 barrels in the week ending Sept. 13, according to a Reuters poll.

-Bitcoin price started to decline again from the $60,650 resistance level. Bitcoin is now at risk of further declines below the $57,500 support area.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: Upward

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2584.91

Scenario 1: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2589.51, targeting 2595.94 and 2603.07

Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2578.13 with a target price of 2571.68 and then 2563.85

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: Upward

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $69.50 per barrel

Scenario 1: Buy oil by breaking the $69.74 level, targeting $70.21 and then $70.77.

Alternative scenario: Sell oil with a break and stability by closing a candle below $69.06 levels, targeting $68.54 and then $67.95

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: Upward

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes) Current price: 1.11281

First scenario: Buy the Euro-Dollar by breaking 1.11389, targeting 1.11574 and then 1.11798.

Alternative scenario: Sell the EUR/USD with a break and stability with a candle closing below 1.11162, targeting 1.11002 and then 1.10789.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

 

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GBPUSD

 

Trend: Upward

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.32086

Scenario 1: Buy the pound dollar with a break and stability above the level of 1.32241, targeting the price of 1.32482 and then 1.32768

Alternative scenario: Sell the pound dollar with a break and stability with a close below 1.31941, targeting 1.31700 and then 1.31478

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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NAS100

 

Trend: Upward

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 19686

Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold to close above 19770 with a target price of 19874 then 19992

Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq with break and hold with close below 19613 with target price 19489 then 19382

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

-From USA Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) 15:30
-From USA Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) 15:30
-From Canada Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Aug) 15:30

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index held its recent lows around 100.7 on Tuesday, hovering near 14-month lows ahead of the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting, where it is expected to deliver a major interest rate cut.

Markets are now pricing in a 67% chance that the Fed will cut rates by 50 basis points, up from 25% a month ago, while the odds of a modest 25 basis point cut are 33%, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

The forecast came even after key inflation indicators for August came in higher than expected last week, although the latest jobs data pointed to signs of a slowing labor market.

Investors are also looking ahead to U.S. retail sales and industrial production figures on Tuesday for further insights into the economy.

Meanwhile, markets remain divided on whether the Bank of England will cut interest rates again this week, while the Bank of Japan is expected to keep policy steady but signal further rate hikes.

Gold held steady around $2,580 an ounce on Tuesday, hovering near record highs, supported by continued weakness in the U.S. dollar and growing expectations of a major interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week.

Oil prices extended gains on Tuesday as the market awaited concerns about U.S. production in the wake of Hurricane Francine and expectations of a decline in U.S. crude inventories.