enDaily Analysis 16/05/2024
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The dollar index fell to about 104.2 on Thursday, hovering at five-week lows as US inflation slowed in April, boosting expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates in September.
Gold rises as expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve increase, which enhances the attractiveness.
Platinum reaches its highest levels in one year.
Analysts say that gold is preparing to reach the level of $2,400 per ounce.
Following the April CPI data, the odds of a possible interest rate cut in September have increased, which suits the price of gold from a yield perspective.
With inflation about to boil, gold is literally booming as the sun shines and looks set to reach the $2,400 level. However, a potential rebound in the dollar or Treasury yields could be the biggest hurdle for the gold price in the remainder of the year. the week.
The decline in US consumer prices coupled with last week’s lackluster jobs report and a lower-than-expected US jobs report for April come as good news for Federal Reserve policymakers who are waiting to see renewed progress in inflation before lowering borrowing costs. (Fedwatch)
Bullion is known as an inflation hedge, but rising interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said he is optimistic that inflation will continue to decline, echoing Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments earlier in the week when he indicated the central bank was unlikely to have to raise interest rates again.
The yen rises and the dollar shrinks as inflation declines in the United States.
Asia rides Wall Street’s rally, and the dollar declines due to easing inflation.
Energy Information Administration data showed that US crude inventories fell by 2.508 million barrels last week, declining for the second week in a row and exceeding expectations for a withdrawal of 1.362 million barrels.
Gasoline and distillate stocks in the United States also witnessed unexpected declines.
Moreover, weak US inflation data for April fueled bets that the Fed will start cutting interest rates in September, boosting demand expectations.
Bitcoin price rose by almost 8% and broke many obstacles. BTC is now consolidating gains and may correct in the short term towards $65,000.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2389.05
The first scenario: Buy gold at a break and hold above 2396.29, with a target price of 2402.72 and 2409.85.
Alternative scenario: sell gold at a fraction and hold below 2384.91, with a target price of 2378.46 and then 2372.23.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
CRUDE OIL
Trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $78.49 per barrel
The first scenario: Buying oil at a break and holding steady by closing the candle at the highest level at $78.85, targeting a price of $79.32, then 79.89. Alternative scenario: Selling oil at a break of $78.17, targeting a price of $77.65, then 77.07.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
EURUSD
General trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.08809
The first scenario: Buying Eurodollars at a break of 1.08953, targeting a price of 1.09138, then 1.09363.
Alternative scenario: sell the euro/dollar at a break and hold firm by closing the candle below 1.08726, targeting the price of 1.08566 then 1.08353.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
GBPUSD
Trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.26820
The first scenario: Buying the pound dollar at a break and stability above the level of 1.27046, targeting the price of 1.27332, then 1.27553.
Alternative scenario: sell the pound/dollar at a break and hold firm by closing below 1.26710, targeting a price of 1.26513 then 1.26289.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
NAS100
Trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 18723
The first scenario: Buy the Nasdaq at a break and hold steady with a close above 18767, targeting the price of 18836 then 18916.
Alternative scenario: sell Nasdaq at a break and hold firm by closing below 18665, price 18608, then 18557.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
- From the United States of America unemployment claims rates 15:30
- From the United States of America Philadelphia Manufacturing Index (May) 15:30
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index fell to about 104.2 on Thursday, hovering at five-week lows as US inflation slowed in April, boosting expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates in September.
US core inflation slowed to 3.6% year-on-year in April from 3.8% in March, in line with market expectations and marking the lowest reading in three years.
Weaker-than-expected US retail sales numbers for April also provided further evidence of a slowing economy.
Investors now look forward to the weekly jobless claims data and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index on Thursday.
The dollar suffered losses across the board, but continued to weaken against the yen as the gap between US and Japanese yields narrowed.
Gold prices rose on Thursday after a sharp rise in the last session as dollar and bond yields weakened due to the increasing possibility of an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve as early as September.
West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose above $79 a barrel on Thursday, extending gains from the previous session as a larger-than-expected decline in weekly U.S. crude inventories supported oil prices.
Oil prices rose on Wednesday, fueled by expectations of increased demand. This rise coincided with a weakening US dollar and a report showing a decline in US crude and gasoline inventories. Additionally, the release of the inflation data could point towards a more supportive economic outlook for oil prices.
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