Daily Market Analysis

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

• The dollar index steadied around 104.4 on Friday, poised for its second consecutive weekly gain as investors navigate US economic and monetary policy expectations.
• Gold prices face a second weekly decline as traders adjust their bets on interest rate cuts. The precious metal has dropped over 1% this week.
• Retail sales experienced their most significant decline since February 2023.
• Investor focus and caution shift towards today’s US Producer Price Index report.
• China and Hong Kong remain on holiday.
• Oil prices hold steady as the IEA’s weaker outlook cools expectations for US rate cuts. Brent crude trades at $82.00, while WTI crude sits at $77.00.
• Bitcoin reaches its all-time high. Historical trends suggest a 50% chance of hitting $100,000 by August this year.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1991.89

The first scenario: Selling gold at a fraction and holding below 1999.44, with a target price of 1993.00 and 1985.64. Alternative scenario: Buying gold at a break and holding above 2007.73, with a target price of 2012.73 and then 2019.68.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $77.52 per barrel

The first scenario: Buying oil at a break and holding steady by closing the candle at the highest level at $77.77, targeting a price of $78.23, then 78.80. Alternative scenario: Selling oil at a break of $77.09, targeting a price of $76.57, then 75.98.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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EURUSD

 

General trend: – Bearish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.07592

The first scenario: sell the euro/dollar at a break of 1.07449, targeting a price of 1.07289, then 1.07076. Alternative scenario: buy the euro/dollar at a break of 1.07676, targeting a price of 1.07861, then 1.08085.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

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GBPUSD

 

Trend: down

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.25814

The first scenario: selling the pound dollar at a break and holding below the level of 1.25574, targeting a price of 1.25376 then 1.25152. Alternative scenario: buying the pound dollar at a break and holding steady by closing above 1.25910, targeting a price of 1.26196 then 1.26417.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages leads to a decline

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NAS100

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 17942

The first scenario: Buying Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close above 17966, targeting a price of 18006 then 18052. Alternative scenario: Selling Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close below 17907, targeting a price of 17865 then 17822.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

• China: Chinese New Year holiday
• US: Producer Price Index (Annual) (Jan): 16:30 GMT
• US: Producer Price Index (Monthly) (Jan): 16:30 GMT

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

• The dollar index steadied around 104.4 on Friday, poised for its second consecutive weekly gain as investors continued to assess U.S. economic and monetary policy expectations. The greenback fell 0.4% on Thursday as U.S. retail sales unexpectedly declined in January, with a drop in receipts at auto dealers and gasoline stations leading the decline.
• Meanwhile, another report showed that weekly jobless claims unexpectedly fell to 212,000, below the market expectation of 220,000. On the monetary policy front, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said this week that while progress has been made in fighting inflation, he is not ready to call for rate cuts due to ongoing risks.
• On the other hand, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsby said the central bank should be careful about waiting too long before cutting rates.
• Gold is headed for a second straight weekly decline on Friday after a surprise jump in U.S. consumer prices prompted traders to rethink their rate cut expectations, although the bullion pared some losses after a drop in consumer spending.
• Oil prices faltered on Friday on demand slowdown expectations from the International Energy Agency after gains in the previous session on weak U.S. retail sales data that raised optimism that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates sooner than expected.