Daily Market Analysis

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

• The dollar index rose to around 103 on Tuesday, reaching its highest level in over a week as investors reassessed expectations for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, while looking ahead to more economic data this week.
• Gold weakened against the dollar, as 10-year Treasury yields rose above 4%.
• Oil prices were mixed amid economic concerns and Red Sea issues. Brent crude traded at $78 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate at $72 a barrel.
• Goldman Sachs raises its forecast for U.S. growth and expects the first rate cut in March.
• JPMorgan Chase reports record earnings of $49.6 billion in 2023, and its CEO, Jamie Dimon, expects steady inflation.
• The Nikkei index in Tokyo closed up 0.91%.
• Bitcoin prices struggled under the resistance zone of $43,500. BTC could start another decline if it remains below the 100-hour simple moving average.

Smart technical reports

How they work

A likely scenario for the day is proposed, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, could be between 60% and 75%. If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the alternative scenario condition level, the alternative scenario is then immediately activated, and the first scenario prediction gets cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on classical technical analysis.

GOLD

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $2,049.26

First scenario: Buy gold on the break when steady by closing the candle above the level of $2,053.08, targeting a price of $2,058.14 and then $2,065.09.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold on the break of $2,044.85, targeting a price of $2,038.40 and then $2,031.05.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

CRUDE OIL

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $72.50 per barrel

First scenario: Buy oil at a break of $72.83, targeting a price of $73.30 and then $73.86.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil on the level of $72.15, targeting a price of $71.63 and then $71.05.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

EURUSD

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.09208

First scenario: Sell EURUSD on the break of $1.09060, targeting a price of $1.08900 and then $1.08687.
Alternative scenario: Buy EURUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the level of $1.09287, targeting a price of $1.09472 and then $1.09696.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

GBPUSD

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.26831

First scenario: Sell GBPUSD on the break of $1.26679, targeting a price of $1.26482 and then $1.26258.
Alternative scenario: Buy GBPUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the level of $1.27015, targeting a price of $1.27301 and then $1.27522.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

NAS100

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $16,875

First scenario: Buy Nasdaq on the break when steady by closing the candle above the level of $16,910, targeting a price of $16,960 and then $16,996.
Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq on the break of $16,851, targeting a price of $16,809 and then $16,766.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

Economic Calendar

(Times are in GMT+3)

• Europe: German Consumer Price Index (monthly) (December) at 10:00
• Canada, Consumer Price Index (annually) (December) at 16:30

Fundamental Analysis

• The dollar index rose to around 103 on Tuesday, reaching its highest level in over a week as investors reassessed expectations for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, while looking ahead to more economic data this week.
• Traders reduced their bets on early rate cuts from the Federal Reserve at the start of the year, even though the unexpected decline in U.S. producer prices in December supported the cautious view.
• The markets put a 70% chance that the central bank will begin to cut rates in March, which is considered too aggressive by most analysts.
• Investors are awaiting U.S. retail sales data on Wednesday, which is expected to show that consumer spending slowed slightly last month.
• Meanwhile, a European Central Bank official warned on Monday that it may be too early to cut rates this year given continued inflation and geopolitical risks.
• The dollar strengthened across all sectors, with the most noticeable buying activity against the corresponding currencies.
• Gold prices fell on Tuesday as U.S. dollar and Treasury yields rose, while traders waited to hear from a number of speakers from the U.S. Federal Reserve this week for more clarity on the Fed’s rate-cutting expectations.
• At least six Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak this week.
• Oil prices fluctuated on Tuesday, after losses in the previous session, as markets weighed broader economic concerns against U.S. supply and demand issues related to weather and ongoing tensions in the Middle East that have led to the diversion of more tankers.