Daily Market Analysis

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

• The dollar index held steady below 102 on Friday and is set to lose about 2% this week, as investors price in the possibility of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve next year.
• Gold is poised for a weekly gain amid the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance.
• Palladium is heading for its best week since March 2022.
• Silver and platinum are also set to post weekly gains.
• Apple shares climbed 1.7% to close at a new all-time high above $3 trillion.
• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose above 37,000 to close at a record high amid the Federal Reserve’s upbeat message.
• Oil prices are on track for their first weekly gain in two months, with Brent crude trading at $76.60 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate at $71.97 a barrel.
• Bitcoin is holding near $42,700 after surging to $44,000.

 

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for the day is proposed, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, could be between 60% and 75%. If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the alternative scenario condition level, the alternative scenario is then immediately activated, and the first scenario prediction gets cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $2,035.12

First scenario: Buy gold on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $2,039.76, targeting a price of $2,044.82 and then $2,051.76.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold on the break of $2,031.53, targeting a price of $2,025.08 and then $2,017.73.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $72.08 per barrel

First scenario: Buy oil on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $72.47, targeting a price of $72.94 and then $73.51.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil on the break of $71.80, targeting a price of $71.80 and then $70.69.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.09828

First scenario: Sell EURUSD on the break of $1.09800, targeting a price of $1.09640 and then $1.09427.
Alternative scenario: Buy EURUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.10027, targeting a price of $1.10212 and then $1.10436.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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GBPUSD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.27575

First scenario: Sell GBPUSD on the break of $1.27447, targeting a price of $1.27249 and then $1.27025.
Alternative scenario: Buy GBPUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.27783, targeting a price of $1.28069 and then $1.28290.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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NAS100

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $16,772

First scenario: Sell Nasdaq on the break of $16,743, targeting a price of $16,702 and then $16,658.
Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq on the break when steady by closing the candle above the level of $16,803, targeting a price of $16,842 and then $16,888.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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Economic Calendar

(Times are in GMT+3)

 

• US manufacturing PMI (December) at 17:45
• US services PMI (December) at 17:45

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

• The dollar index stayed below 102 on Friday and was on track to lose about 2% this week, weighed down by the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates next year.
• Earlier this week, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged for the third meeting in a row and signaled a 75 basis point interest rate cut for 2024, a faster pace than previously expected in September.
• Fed Chair Powell’s cautious tone persisted during the press conference, with remarks about discussions on lowering borrowing costs “that are on the horizon”. Driven by a faster-than-expected drop in inflation.
• The markets now anticipate a 75% probability that the Fed will cut interest rates in March.
• Also, US retail sales that came in stronger than expected and a drop in weekly jobless claims did not do much to alter expectations of interest rate cuts.
• Meanwhile, both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England kept interest rates steady, but vowed to keep them at high levels to tackle inflation.
• Gold prices were set for weekly gains on Friday, as the Fed’s outlook for cutting borrowing costs next year hit the dollar and treasury bond yields, boosting demand for safe-haven assets.
• Oil prices climbed on Friday, on their way to post the first weekly rise in two months after benefiting from upbeat expectations from the International Energy Agency about oil demand in the next year and the dollar’s weakness.