enDaily Analysis 15/11/2024
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
-Dollar heads for strong weekly gains
The dollar index held steady around 106.8 on Friday and was on track for its best weekly performance in more than a month as investors backed away from expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut.
Gold is heading for its worst week since 2021
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Thursday signaled there was no immediate need to cut interest rates, citing a strong economy, robust labor market and persistent inflation.
As a result, markets have lost confidence in a December rate cut, with traders now seeing a 58% chance, down from 80% before the speech.
-In addition, investors believe that the incoming Trump administration may push for higher trade tariffs, tax cuts, and increased deficit spending, which could lead to higher inflation, limiting the Fed’s ability to lower borrowing costs.
-Gold rises; upcoming data to determine sentiment
-Gold rose in early Asian trade, with spot gold up 0.1% at $2,566.66 an ounce. Upcoming U.S. data is expected to weigh on market sentiment.
The outlook for the precious metal remains bearish as markets await US retail sales data due later today. The outcome of the Federal Reserve’s December meeting will be particularly crucial.
Dollar set for big weekly gain as yields rise on Powell, mixed China data
The U.S. dollar was poised for a big weekly gain on Friday, rising near one-year highs as a hawkish shift from the Federal Reserve chairman sent short-term Treasury yields higher, leaving Wall Street and European stock market futures in the red.
Oil heads for weekly loss as Chinese demand remains weak, with Brent trading at $71.00 and WTI at $67.00
Brent crude is expected to fall by 2.7% during the week, while West Texas Intermediate crude is expected to fall by 3.3%.
“While oil prices have stabilized somewhat around the $71.00 support level this week, the lack of a tangible upside catalyst suggests that the price recovery remains tepid for now,” IG market strategist Yip Jun Rong said in an email.
-Yip added that the prospects of increased supplies from the United States and OPEC+, along with doubts about China’s economic recovery, remain a concern, while the chances of a December interest rate cut are now “close to zero” under a less accommodative Federal Reserve.
China’s oil refineries processed 4.6 percent less crude in October than a year earlier, down for a seventh month on an annual basis, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Friday, amid some refinery closures and lower operating rates at smaller independent refineries.
Government data showed the drop in employment rates came as China’s industrial output growth slowed last month and demand problems in the property sector showed no signs of easing despite increased consumer spending.
Oil prices also fell this week as top forecasters indicated that market fundamentals remain bearish.
-Bitcoin price witnessed a short-term correction from the $93,450 area. Bitcoin is now consolidating its gains near $87,000 and may attempt another surge in the near term.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2651.97
Scenario 1: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2556.23, targeting 2549.78 and 2541.94
Alternative scenario: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2567.61, targeting 2567.61 and then 2581.17
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $67.60 per barrel
Scenario 1: Sell oil with a break and stability by closing a candle below the $67.34 levels, targeting $66.82 and then $66.23.
Alternative scenario: Buy oil by breaking the $68.03 level, targeting $68.49, then $69.05, targeting $67.59, then $66.49.
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
EURUSD
General trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.05564
First scenario: Sell the EUR/USD by breaking 1.05383, targeting 1.05223 and then 1.05010.
Alternative scenario: Buy the EUR/USD with a break and hold with a candle closing above 1.05611, targeting 1.05795 and then 1.06020.
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
GBPUSD
Trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.26816
Scenario 1: Selling the pound/dollar with a break and stability below the 1.26676 level, targeting the price of 1.26435 and then 1.26213.
Alternative scenario: Buy the pound dollar with a break and hold with a close above 1.26976, targeting 1.27217 and then 1.27503.
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
NAS100
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 20870
Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold to close above 20950 with a target price of 21053 then 21171
Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq with break and hold with close below 20793 with target price 20668 then 20561
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
-From USA Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) 16:30
-From USA Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) 16:30
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index held steady around 106.8 on Friday and was on track for its best weekly performance in more than a month as investors backed away from expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled Thursday that there is no urgent need to cut interest rates, citing a strong economy, robust labor market and persistent inflation.
In response, markets sharply reduced the odds of a quarter-point rate cut at the Fed’s December meeting, with the odds falling to about 59%, compared to 82.5% the day before.
Investors also processed data showing a slight acceleration in U.S. producer prices for October, with the core PPI beating expectations.
The dollar received further support from bets that President-elect Trump, along with a Republican-controlled Congress, will implement inflationary policies that would limit the Federal Reserve’s ability to lower borrowing costs.
Expectations of increased deficit spending are also contributing to higher Treasury yields, further strengthening the dollar.
Gold traded around $2,570 an ounce on Friday, heading for its worst week since June 2021, pressured by a strong US dollar and fading expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which reduced the appeal of non-interest-bearing gold.
Oil prices fell on Friday amid signs that demand in China, the world’s largest importer of crude, remains weak amid an uneven economic recovery.
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