Daily Market Analysis

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

The US dollar is hovering at its highest level in 6 months.

Gold is on the rise following Chinese data that strengthened the yuan against the dollar.

Platinum and palladium are poised for weekly gains.

Oil is surging dramatically amid concerns about supply shortages, with Brent crude trading at $94.39 and West Texas Intermediate crude at $90.90.

Bitcoin continues its modest rise, reaching an all-time high of $26,600.

Investors are eagerly awaiting crucial data on the US dollar today.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for the day is proposed, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, could be between 60% and 75%. If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the alternative scenario condition level, the alternative scenario is then immediately activated, and the first scenario prediction gets cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on classical technical analysis.

 

 

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GOLD

 

 

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1,915.80
First scenario: Buy gold on the break when staying above $1,918.20, targeting a price of $1,922.59 and $1,927.09.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold on the break when staying below $1,912.34, targeting a price of $1,907.07 and then $1,902.06.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

 

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $90.88 per barrel

First scenario: Buy oil on the break when stable by closing the candle above the levels of $91.20, targeting a price of $91.67 and then $92.21.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil on the break of $90.57, targeting a price of $90.12 and then $89.68.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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EURUSD

 

 

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.06516
First scenario: Buy EURUSD on the break when stable by closing the candle above $1.06564, targeting a price of $1.06751 and then $1.06960.

Alternative scenario: Sell EURUSD on the break when staying below $1.06334, targeting a price of $1.06174 and then $1.05974.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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GBPUSD

 

 

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.24256
First scenario: Sell GBPUSD on the break when staying below $1.23606, targeting a price of $1.23606 and then $1.23313.

Alternative scenario: Buy GBPUSD on the break when stable by closing the candle above the levels of $1.24349, targeting a price of $1.24693 and then $1.25021.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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NAS100

 

 

 

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $15,708
First scenario: Sell Nasdaq on the break when staying below $15,656, targeting a price of $15,602 and then $15,531.

Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq on the break when stable by closing the candle above the levels of $15,738, targeting a price of $15,798 and then $15,861.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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Economic Calendar

(Times are in GMT+3)

 

• Europe: Balance of Trade at 12:00.
• United States: Export and Import Index at 15:30.
• United States: NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 15:30.
• United States: Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel at 17:00.

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

• The US dollar remained stable above 105 on Friday, hovering at its highest level in six months, as strong US economic data boosted hopes that the Federal Reserve could engineer a smooth landing even if it keeps interest rates high for longer.
• The US retail sales rose by 0.6% on a monthly basis in August, surpassing expectations of a 0.2% increase, while producer prices surged by 0.7%, the largest increase since June 2022, exceeding the market’s forecast of a 0.4% rise.
• Traders still bet that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged next week, while the central bank’s next policy step in November remains under discussion.
• The dollar also rose against the euro after the European Central Bank delivered what many analysts believe to be the final hike in the current tightening cycle.
• At the same time, the US currency weakened against the yuan after China announced stronger-than-expected economic data for August.
• Gold prices rose on Friday as the dollar weakened against the yuan following promising economic data from China, bolstering hopes of recovery in the world’s largest consumer of bullion, even as the possibility of another US interest rate hike kept investors on edge.
• West Texas Intermediate crude oil hit a new 10-month high on Thursday as the focus returned to tight supply expectations for the rest of 2023, despite the United States reporting wholesale prices rising more than expected last week and US oil inventories increasing.
• October West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed up $1.64 at $90.16 a barrel. November Brent, the global benchmark, last traded up $1.73 at $93.61 a barrel.
• The increase comes as global inventories dwindle due to supply shortages caused by Saudi Arabia’s reduction in production by one million barrels per day, which is expected to last until the end of the year, and cuts by other OPEC+ producers. OPEC presented three major oil market reports this week. The Energy Information Administration and the International Energy Agency have warned that competition for supply is possible with inventories declining for the remainder of 2023.