enDaily Analysis 15/07/2024
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The dollar index rose to around 104.3 on Monday, rebounding slightly from a five-week low as investors sought safety after the assassination attempt on former U.S. President Donald Trump over the weekend.
-Gold steady as investors seek more cues on Fed rate path
-Dollar rises on safe-haven gains – Fed Chair Powell to speak later today -US retail sales data due later this week
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak later today, and a handful of other officials will speak later in the week. Data due out this week include U.S. retail sales, June industrial production and weekly jobless claims.
“If we see another big drop in retail sales, it will add to the sense of urgency for lower interest rates, which could help gold,” said Ilya Spivak, head of global economics at Taste Life. “If gold breaks through $2,450, prices will hit new highs.”
-According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are pricing in a 93% chance of a US rate cut in September. The appeal of non-yielding gold tends to shine in a low interest rate environment.
In broader markets, the dollar rose on safety demands after the assassination attempt on former US President Donald Trump, which raised the odds of his victory.
A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for holders of other currencies.
“I’m not convinced that a Trump win or loss is directly tied to a binary outcome for gold in the same way that Fed policy expectations have been,” said Matt Simpson, senior analyst at City Index. “But if Trump provokes trade wars, you might think that builds a good case for gold to do well under his presidency.”
On the financial front, gold traders in India continued to offer discounts to attract consumers amid rising prices.
Above-average rainfall and any positive reduction in import tariffs will provide tailwinds for Indian demand in the near term, analysts at ANZ Bank said in a note.
Oil regains strength amid political uncertainty in the US and the Middle East,
with Brent crude trading at $84.00 and WTI at $81.00.
Oil prices shrugged off the impact of the dollar, which rose after a failed assassination attempt on US presidential candidate Donald Trump.
“I don’t think you can ignore the uncertainty that last weekend’s assassination attempt will throw at a deeply divided country in the run-up to the election,” said Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG.
-In the Middle East, talks on ending the conflict in Gaza between Israel and Hamas broke down on Saturday after three days, although a Hamas official said the next day that the movement had not withdrawn from the discussions.
-Bitcoin price started to rise strongly and broke the resistance level of $62,000. Bitcoin is showing positive signs and may rise towards the level of $63,200.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2406.73
Scenario 1: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2415.46, targeting 2421.89 and 2429.02
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2404.08, targeting 2397.63 and then 2391.40
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $81.08 per barrel
Scenario 1: Buy oil with a break and stability by closing a candle above the $81.52 levels, targeting $81.99 and then $82.55.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil by breaking $80.84 with a target price of $80.32 then $79.73
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
EURUSD
General trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.08959
Scenario 1: Buy EUR/USD by breaking 1.09025, targeting 1.09210 and then 1.09435.
Alternative scenario: Sell the EUR/USD with a break and stability with a candle closing below 1.08798, targeting 1.08638 and then 1.08425.
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
GBPUSD
Trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.29759
Scenario 1: Buy the pound dollar with a break and stability above the 1.29903 level, targeting the price of 1.30189 and then 1.30411.
Alternative scenario: Sell the pound dollar with a break and stability with a close below 1.29568, targeting 1.29370 and then 1.29746.
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
NAS100
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 20599
Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold to close above 20550 with a target price of 20652 then 20801
Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq with break and hold with close below 20550 price 20493 then 20442
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
From the United States of America, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell speaks at 19:30
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index rose to around 104.3 on Monday, bouncing slightly from a five-week low as investors sought safety after the assassination attempt on former U.S. President Donald Trump over the weekend.
Traders expressed concerns that further political violence could fuel instability and market volatility, although analysts noted that the event increased Trump’s chances of retaking the White House in November.
Meanwhile, the dollar has fallen for two weeks in a row as inflation in the United States slows, boosting expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon start cutting interest rates.
Data last week showed that U.S. consumer inflation slowed more than expected in June, while Federal Reserve officials signaled their readiness to ease restrictive policy.
Markets are currently pricing in a greater than 90% chance of the Fed cutting rates in September, with a second cut possible before the end of the year.
The dollar rose against the yen across the board, but traders remained on alert for any further intervention in the yen.
Gold prices were little changed on Monday, as investors awaited comments from Federal Reserve officials and economic data for further clues on the path of U.S. interest rates.
Oil prices regained some ground on Monday, as political uncertainty in the United States and the Middle East supported prices, offsetting downward pressure from a strong dollar and weak demand in China, the world’s biggest crude importer.
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