enDaily Analysis 15/03/2024
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The dollar index held on to its recent gains at around 103.4 on Friday and is on track for its first weekly gain in four weeks, as hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data overshadowed expectations for the timing and size of Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.
• The data highlights the “risk that the last mile on taming inflation in the U.S. might not be as easy as progress made to date.”
• That could give the Fed even more reason to push back the timing of any interest rate cuts in 2024.
Chinese central bank keeps key interest rate steady at 2.5%
• U.S. retail sales rose 0.6% in February
• Gold on track for weekly decline as traders pare back U.S. rate cut bets
• Rising inflation pressures the U.S. Federal Reserve to keep interest rates high, weighing on non-yielding assets like gold.
• U.S. producer prices rose more than expected in February amid rising costs for goods such as gasoline and food, which could raise concerns about inflation flaring up again.
• Asian stocks fell on Friday, tracking technology-led declines on Wall Street overnight after hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation cooled bets on how soon the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates.
• Markets now see a 60% chance of a Fed rate cut in June, down from 74% a week earlier.
• The Fed will release its latest forecasts at its policy meeting next week. The December meeting projected three-quarter-point rate cuts for 2024.
• Oil prices are on track to end the week up about 4%, with Brent crude trading at $84.00 and WTI crude at $80.00.
• The U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday that U.S. crude oil stocks also fell unexpectedly last week as refiners boosted processing rates, while gasoline stocks fell as demand rose.
• On the demand side, the Chinese central bank left its key interest rate unchanged, as authorities continued to prioritize currency stability amid uncertainty about the timing of expected Federal Reserve rate cuts.
• Bitcoin price is moving below the $73,000 resistance level. BTC needs to stay above the $67,000 support level to start a new upward move in the near term.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2168.37
The first scenario: Buy gold at a break and hold above 2171.40, with a target price of 2176.45 and 2183.40. Alternative scenario: Sell gold at a break and hold below 2163.16, with a price target of 2156.72 and then 2149.36.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
CRUDE OIL
Trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $80.41 per barrel
The first scenario: Buying oil at a break and holding steady by closing the candle at the highest level at $80.77, targeting a price of $81.24, then 81.80. Alternative scenario: Selling oil at a break of $80.94, targeting a price of $79.57, then 78.98.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
EURUSD
General trend:- Bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.08845
The first scenario: Buy the Euro/Dollar at a break of 1.08929, targeting a price of 1.09113, then 1.09338. Alternative scenario: Sell the Euro/Dollar at a break of 1.08701, targeting a price of 1.08541, then 1.08329.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
GBPUSD
Trend: down
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.27429
The first scenario: selling the pound dollar at a break and holding below the level of 1.27173, targeting a price of 1.26976 then 1.26752. Alternative scenario: buying the pound dollar at a breaking point and holding steady at a close above 1.27509, targeting a price of 1.27795 then 1.28016.
Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline
NAS100
Trend: down
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 18239
The first scenario: Buy the Nasdaq at a break and hold with a close below 18198, targeting the price of 18156 then 18113. The alternative scenario: Buy the Nasdaq at a break and hold with a close above 18257, targeting the price of 18297 then 18343.
Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
- No economic data is released today.
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index held on to its recent gains at around 103.4 on Friday and is on track for its first weekly gain in four weeks, as hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data overshadowed expectations for the timing and size of Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.
- Data on Thursday showed that U.S. producer prices rose more than expected in February on both a monthly and annual basis.
- That followed data earlier in the week that showed U.S. consumer prices came in hotter than expected last month.
- Markets now see a 60% chance of a Fed rate cut in June, down from 74% a week earlier.
- Meanwhile, the Fed is widely expected to keep rates steady in March and May.
- The dollar was down across the board this week, with the selling most pronounced against the New Zealand dollar, the yen and sterling.
- Gold prices headed for their first weekly decline in four weeks on Friday, as surprisingly hot U.S. inflation readings suggested the Federal Reserve may cut fewer times this year and could delay the first cut until after June.
- Oil prices fell on Friday but were on track for a weekly gain of about 4%, supported by the International Energy Agency’s upward revision of its 2024 oil demand forecast and an unexpected decline in U.S. crude stocks.
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