Daily Market Analysis

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

• The dollar dips to 104.7 as investors weigh Fed policy after strong inflation data and official comments.
• Gold nears a two-month low with traders reacting to Fed officials’ remarks.
• Asian tech stocks rally following Nvidia’s strong performance.
• At least 7 Fed officials will speak this week, keeping markets focused.
• Tomorrow’s US Producer Price Index report takes center stage.
• Japan’s Q4 GDP falls short of expectations.
• China and Hong Kong remain on holiday.
• Oil prices slide after US crude stockpiles rise; Brent at $81.00, WTI at $76.00.
• Bitcoin bounces back from $51,250, targets $52,500, and eyes $55,000.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1991.89

  The first scenario: selling gold at a fraction and holding below 1988.33, with a target price of 1981.88 and 1974.53. Alternative scenario: buying gold at a fraction and holding above 1996.56, with a price targeting of 2001.62 and then 2008.56.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $76.03 per barrel

The first scenario: Buying oil at a break and holding steady by closing the candle at the highest level at $76.31, targeting a price of $76.78, then 77.34. Alternative scenario: Selling oil at a break of $75.63, targeting a price of $75.11, then 74.52.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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EURUSD

 

General trend: – Bearish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.07303

The first scenario: sell the euro/dollar at a break of 1.07134, targeting a price of 1.06974, then 1.06761. Alternative scenario: buy the euro/dollar at a break of 1.07361, targeting a price of 1.07546, then 1.07770.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

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GBPUSD

 

Trend: down

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.25693

The first scenario: Selling the pound dollar at a fraction and holding below the level of 1.25478, targeting the price of 1.25280, then 1.25056. Alternative scenario: Buying the pound dollar at a break, and holding steady at a close above 1.25813, targeting the price of 1.26099, then 1.26321.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages leads to a decline

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NAS100

 

Trend: down

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 17877

The first scenario: Selling Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close below 17851, targeting a price of 17809 then 17765. Alternative scenario: Buying Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close above 17910, targeting a price of 17949 then 17995.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages leads to a decline

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

• China: Chinese New Year holiday
• UK: GDP (Monthly) (Dec): 10:00 GMT
• UK: GDP (Quarterly) (Q4): 10:00 GMT
• UK: GDP (Annual) (Q4): 10:00 GMT
• US: Core Retail Sales (Monthly) (Jan): 16:30 GMT
• US: Initial Jobless Claims: 16:30 GMT
• US: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index: 16:30 GMT
• US: Retail Sales (Monthly) (Jan): 16:30 GMT

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

• The dollar index fell to around 104.7 on Thursday as investors continued to assess Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations in light of strong inflation data and recent comments from central bank officials.
• Data on Tuesday showed that headline inflation fell to 3.1% in January from 3.4% in December, but came in above expectations of 2.9%.
• Core inflation was unchanged at 3.9%, missing expectations of a slowdown to 3.7%.
• Markets now see no rate cut from the Fed in March and have reduced the probability of a move in May.
• Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsby said on Wednesday that the central bank should be careful about waiting too long before cutting rates.
• Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr also said that the latest inflation data suggests a bumpy road to the 2% inflation target.
• Investors are now looking ahead to January retail sales and weekly jobless claims figures on Thursday.
• Gold struggled near a two-month low on Thursday as investors assessed comments from two Federal Reserve officials on unexpectedly high January inflation that dimmed hopes for quick and deep rate cuts this year.
• Oil prices fell on Thursday after a larger-than-expected jump in U.S. crude stockpiles, stoking demand concerns in the world’s largest economy and oil consumer.