Daily Market Analysis

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

• The dollar index fell to its lowest level in four months on Wednesday, as investors weighed the Federal Reserve’s cautious policy stance.
• The gold price rose as the dollar and bond yields were affected by expectations of interest rate cuts from the Fed.
• The benchmark U.S. 10-year yield fell to its lowest level in four months.
• Gold is likely to reach new highs in 2024.
• Oil prices rose on the back of U.S. crude stockpiles draws and optimistic demand expectations. Brent crude traded at $74.80 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate traded at $70.47 per barrel.
• Bitcoin rose to $43,000 as interest rates remained unchanged.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for the day is proposed, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, could be between 60% and 75%. If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the alternative scenario condition level, the alternative scenario is then immediately activated, and the first scenario prediction gets cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $2,034.34

First scenario: Buy gold on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $2,037.02, targeting a price of $2,042.08 and then $2,049.02.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold on the break of $2,028.79, targeting a price of $2,022.34 and then $2,014.99.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $70.02 per barrel

First scenario: Buy oil on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $70.30, targeting a price of $70.77 and then $71.33.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil on the break of $69.62, targeting a price of $69.10 and then $68.52.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.09005

First scenario: Sell EURUSD on the break of $1.08878, targeting a price of $1.08718 and then $1.08505.
Alternative scenario: Buy EURUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.09105, targeting a price of $1.09290 and then $1.09514.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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GBPUSD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.26389

First scenario: Sell GBPUSD on the break of $1.26246, targeting a price of $1.26049 and then $1.25825.
Alternative scenario: Buy GBPUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.26582, targeting a price of $1.26868 and then $1.27089.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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NAS100

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $16,872

First scenario: Sell Nasdaq on the break of $16,836, targeting a price of $16,794 and then $16,751.
Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq on the break when steady by closing the candle above the level of $16,895, targeting a price of $16,935 and then $16,981.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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Economic Calendar

(Times are in GMT+3)

 

• Swiss National Bank (SNB) interest rate decision (Q4) at 11:30
• SNB press conference at 12:00
• Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision (December) at 15:00
• European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision (December) at 16:15
• Core retail sales (monthly) (November) at 16:30
• U.S. initial jobless claims at 16:30
• Retail sales (monthly) (November) at 16:30
• ECB press conference at 16:45

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

• The dollar index fell below 102.5 on Thursday, dropping to its lowest level in four months as the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged for the third consecutive meeting and signaled a total of 75 basis points of interest rate cuts in 2024.
• This is still less than the market’s expectation of a full interest rate cut next year, but it is more aggressive than what Fed officials had previously hinted at.
• The Central Bank also said that inflation had “declined over the past year” while maintaining its description of prices as elevated.
• On the data front, U.S. consumer and producer prices changed little and were largely in line with expectations in November.
• The dollar fell sharply across the board and hit its lowest levels in several months against the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, and Japanese yen.
• The gold price continued to rise to its highest level in a week on Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve announced the end of its tightening cycle and signaled lower borrowing costs in 2024, which led to lower yields on the dollar and Treasury.
• Oil prices rose in Asian trading on Thursday, extending their previous gains, on the back of a larger-than-expected weekly withdrawal of U.S. crude stocks and upbeat demand expectations after the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled lower borrowing costs in 2024.