Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

-The dollar hovers at its highest level in a year

The US dollar index held above 106.5 on Thursday, holding at a one-year high as investors reacted to the latest inflation data and Federal Reserve comments.

Gold falls for fifth session

– Wednesday’s consumer price data came in as expected on the headlines, although the annual core inflation rate rose for three months.

The in-line figures have increased the chances of a Fed rate cut in December, with traders now pricing the probability at more than 80%, up from 60% before the announcement.

However, gold prices have fallen more than 4% since last Friday’s sell-off, on speculation that a Trump presidency could prompt the Federal Reserve to halt its easing cycle due to its fiscal strategies and inflationary policies.

Markets are now awaiting producer price index and weekly jobless claims data later today, followed by retail sales data on Friday.

Gold continues to decline for the fourth consecutive session

Asian stocks fall on China concerns; US long-term bond yields rise as dollar gains

Oil prices fall amid concerns over rising production and slowing demand, with Brent crude trading at $72.00 and West Texas Intermediate at $67.00.

“Oil is dealing with the weaker (previous) demand outlook issued by OPEC, which postponed the additional production cut for another month, fearing a negative impact on prices.”

OPEC on Tuesday cut its forecast for global oil demand growth to 1.82 million barrels per day in 2024, down from 1.93 million barrels per day it forecast last month, due to weak demand in China, India and other regions, which pushed oil prices to their lowest levels in about two weeks.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its forecast for U.S. oil production slightly to an average of 13.23 million barrels per day this year, or 300,000 barrels per day above last year’s record 12.93 million barrels per day and up from 13.22 million barrels per day previously forecast.

The agency also raised its forecast for global oil production in 2024 to 102.6 million barrels per day, from its previous forecast of 102.5 million barrels per day. Next year, it expects global production to reach 104.7 million barrels per day, up from 104.5 million barrels per day previously.

The US Energy Information Administration’s forecast for oil demand growth is weaker than OPEC’s, at about 1 million barrels per day in 2024, although this is higher than its previous forecast of about 900,000 barrels per day.

Market participants are now awaiting the International Energy Agency’s oil market report, due later today, and the US Energy Information Administration’s data on crude oil and petroleum products inventories for further trading signals.

Analysts say concerns about Chinese demand remain a major reason behind the decline in prices.

Bitcoin price rose above the $90,000 level and is now trying to consolidate its gains near the $90,000 level and may try to achieve another increase in the near term.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: Down

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2563.79

Scenario 1: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2556.23, targeting 2549.78 and 2541.94

Alternative scenario: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2567.61, targeting 2567.61 and then 2581.17

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: Down

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $67.96 per barrel

Scenario 1: Sell oil with a break and stability by closing a candle below $67.59 levels, targeting $67.07 and then $66.49.

Alternative scenario: Buy oil by breaking the $68.27 level, targeting $68.74, then $69.30, targeting $67.59, then $66.49.

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: Down

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.05480

First scenario: Sell the EUR/USD by breaking 1.05383, targeting 1.05223 and then 1.05010.

Alternative scenario: Buy the EUR/USD with a break and hold with a candle closing above 1.05611, targeting 1.05795 and then 1.06020.

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

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GBPUSD

 

Trend: Down

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.26834

Scenario 1: Selling the pound/dollar with a break and stability below the 1.26676 level, targeting the price of 1.26435 and then 1.26213.

Alternative scenario: Buy the pound dollar with a break and hold with a close above 1.26976, targeting 1.27217 and then 1.27503.

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

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NAS100

 

Trend: Upward

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 21142

Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold to close above 21220 with a target price of 21323 then 211441

Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq with break and hold with close below 21063 with target price 20939 then 20831

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

-From USA Unemployment Claims Rate 4:30
-From USA Producer Price Index (YoY) (Oct) 16:30
-From USA Producer Price Index (MoM) (Oct) 16:30
-US Crude Oil Inventories 19:00
-Federal Reserve Chairman Powell Speech 23:00

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The US dollar index held above 106.5 on Thursday, holding at a one-year high as investors reacted to the latest inflation data and Federal Reserve comments.

The annual inflation rate in the United States rose to 2.6% in October, compared to 2.4% in September, in line with expectations.

Core inflation stood at 3.3%, also in line with market expectations.

Meanwhile, Fed officials including Kashkari, Logan and Mosallem expressed confidence that inflation would return to target amid gradual interest rate adjustments.

Investors now look to U.S. producer inflation data and comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell later today for further guidance on interest rate expectations, along with retail sales figures on Friday.

Elsewhere, the dollar was boosted by “Trump deals,” as markets bet that strong growth and higher inflation under a second Trump administration would limit the Fed’s ability to cut borrowing costs.

Gold fell to around $2,560 an ounce on Thursday, falling for a fifth straight session to an eight-week low, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar as investors digested the latest U.S. consumer price index figures.

Oil prices fell in early trading on Thursday, giving up most of the previous session’s gains, weighed down by concerns about rising global output amid slowing demand growth, while a stronger dollar exacerbated the declines.