Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

-The dollar index settled around 105.2 on Friday and is set to advance for the second straight week, supported by concerns that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates high for longer.

-Gold is looking to achieve its first weekly gain in four weeks thanks to slowing inflation in the United States

The metal has risen 0.5% so far this week

-Producer prices in the United States unexpectedly fell in May

Silver, platinum and palladium headed for weekly losses

Kyle Rodda, a financial markets analyst, said: “Data supporting the Fed’s interest rate cuts over the past two days on the sidelines, regardless of the confusing communications from the Fed meeting, caused some volatility in the gold market.”

“The best recipe for gold is continued weakness in inflation, and then the attractiveness of gold’s recession will begin to appear as a kind of expansion in expectations of possible interest rate cuts this year.”

Data on Thursday showed that US producer prices fell unexpectedly in May, another indication that inflation is easing after rising in the first quarter.

The data came on the heels of a cooler-than-expected CPI report released ahead of the Federal Reserve’s meeting on Wednesday, as the central bank kept interest rates steady and pushed the start of rate cuts to late December.

This week’s inflation data along with US unemployment claims data showed some weakness in price pressures and indicated that the labor market is losing momentum, keeping hopes of a September interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve alive.

-Traders currently see a 67% probability of a cut in September, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of owning non-yielding bullion.

-Japanese stocks rise and the yen falls after the Bank of Japan’s cautious stance

Oil prices are heading towards recording their best week in more than two months amid strong expectations for demand,
with Brent crude trading at $82.00 and West Texas Intermediate crude at $77.00.

-Brent crude and US crude rose more than 3% during the week, the best week since April 5.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) stuck to its expectations for relatively strong growth in global oil demand for 2024, and Goldman Sachs expected strong demand for fuel in the United States this summer.

-Bitcoin price struggled to recover above the $68,000 resistance area. BTC is once again moving lower and may drop below the $66,000 support area.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2311.22

The first scenario: selling gold at a fraction and holding below 2304.28, with a price target of 2297.83 and 2291.60.

Alternative scenario: Buy gold at a break and hold above 2315.66, with a target price of 2322.09 and then 2329.22.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $77.68 per barrel

The first scenario: Buying oil at a break and holding steady by closing the candle at the highest level at $78.13, targeting a price of $78.60, then 79.16. Alternative scenario: Selling oil at a break of $77.45, targeting a price of $76.93, then 76.34.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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EURUSD

 

General trend: bearish

Interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.07265

The first scenario: selling the euro/dollar at a break of 1.07219, targeting a price of 1.07059, then 1.06846.

Alternative scenario: Buy the Euro/Dollar at a break and hold steady by closing the candle above 1.07446, targeting the price of 1.07631 then 1.07855.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

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GBPUSD

 

Trend: down

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.27352

The first scenario: selling the pound dollar at a break and holding below the level of 1.27270, targeting the price of 1.27073 then 1.26849.

Alternative scenario: Buy the pound dollar at a break and hold firm by closing above 1.27606, targeting the price of 1.27892 then 1.28114.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

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NAS100

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 19910

The first scenario: Buy the Nasdaq at a break and hold steady with a close above 19940, targeting a price of 20009 then 20090.

Alternative scenario: sell Nasdaq at a break and hold firm by closing below 19838, price of 19781, then 19730.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

-From the United States of America, the report of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Federal Reserve Bank, 18:00

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index settled around 105.2 on Friday and is set to advance for the second straight week, supported by concerns that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates high for longer.

Earlier this week, the Fed left interest rates unchanged as widely expected, but indicated only one rate cut this year compared to three cuts seen at the March meeting.

This decision came even after US consumer inflation data came in lower than expected in May, followed by a surprise decline in US producer prices.

Furthermore, recent weekly initial jobless claims unexpectedly rose to their highest level in ten months.

The dollar is set to achieve the largest gains this week against the euro, as political uncertainty in Europe affected the region’s currency.

The dollar is also on track for weekly gains against the yen and yuan, but has weakened against the pound and the Australian and New Zealand dollars.

Gold prices rose today, Friday, and are on track to achieve their first weekly gain in four weeks, as US economic data indicated a decline in price pressures, raising optimism about the possibility of the Federal Reserve (US central bank) reducing interest rates.

Oil prices fell on Friday as markets assessed the impact of US interest rates remaining high for longer than expected, but crude oil benchmarks were headed for their best week in more than two months after strong expectations for crude and fuel demand.