enDaily Analysis 14/03/2024
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The dollar index steadied around 102.8 on Thursday as investors looked ahead to more U.S. economic data that could further shape expectations for monetary policy.
- Gold dips as dollar firms, traders await more US data
- Asian stocks hold near seven-month highs on Thursday though mostly rangebound as investors await fresh catalysts.
- Consumer prices rose 3.2% in February compared to the year-ago period, beating economists’ expectations of 3.1%.
- U.S. producer inflation, retail sales and weekly jobless claims numbers are due on Thursday.
- Chinese yuan weakens, markets eye U.S. data, PBOC rate decision.
- Traders see 67% chance of rate cut in June, down from 72% before data showed some stabilization in inflation, according to LSEG’s Interest Rate Probability Application.
- The Fed will release its latest forecasts at its policy meeting next week. The December meeting projected three-quarter-point rate cuts for 2024.
- S&P 500 index rises 1.1% to close at new record high despite hotter-than-expected February inflation reading
- Oil prices rise after surprise U.S. inventory draw, with Brent crude trading at $84.00 and WTI crude at $79.00.
- This was the first decline in seven weeks, confirming industry data reported by API on Tuesday. In addition, the report highlighted a decline in the Cushing, Oklahoma hub, along with a decline in gasoline stocks.
- Oil prices were also boosted by Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries that damaged one plant, as well as ongoing geopolitical risks in the Middle East and extended supply cuts from OPEC+.
- Bitcoin price looks to extend gains above $73,000 resistance level. BTC is poised to move towards the $75,000 resistance level in the near term.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2168.26
The first scenario: Buy gold at a break and hold above 2171.69, with a target price of 2176.75 and 2185.69. Alternative scenario: Sell gold at a break and hold below 2163.46, with a price target of 2157.01 and then 2149.66. Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
CRUDE OIL
Trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $79.37 per barrel
The first scenario: Buying oil at a break and holding steady by closing the candle at the highest level at $79.61, targeting a price of $80.08, then 80.64. Alternative scenario: Selling oil at a break of $78.93, targeting a price of $78.41, then 77.83.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
EURUSD
General trend:- Bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.09383
The first scenario: Buying Eurodollars at a break of 1.09509, targeting a price of 1.09694, then 1.09918. Alternative scenario: Selling Eurodollars at a break of 1.09282, targeting a price of 1.09122, then 1.08909. Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
GBPUSD
Trend: down
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.28013
The first scenario: selling the pound dollar at a break and holding below the level of 1.27794, targeting a price of 1.27596 then 1.27372. Alternative scenario: buying the pound dollar at a break and holding steady at a close above 1.28129, targeting a price of 1.28415 then 1.28637.
Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline
NAS100
Trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 18376
The first scenario: Buying Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close above 18414, targeting the price of 18454 then 18500. Alternative scenario: Selling Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close below 18355, targeting a price of 18313 then 18270.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
- Core Retail Sales (Monthly) (February) 15:30
- Retail Sales (Monthly) (February) 15:30
- Producer Price Index (Monthly) (February) 15:30
- Producer Price Index (Annual) (February) 15:30
- Initial Jobless Claims 15:30
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index steadied around 102.8 on Thursday as investors looked ahead to more U.S. economic data that could further shape expectations for monetary policy.
- U.S. producer inflation, retail sales and weekly jobless claims numbers are due on Thursday.
- Data on Tuesday showed that the U.S. headline inflation rate accelerated to 3.2% in February, above expectations and the January figure of 3.1%, while the core rate fell to 3.8% from 3.9%, but was still above the expected 3.7%.
- Markets currently expect the Fed to hold rates steady in March and May, while traders continued to bet on a move in June.
- The dollar was steady across the board, but remained volatile against the yen amid rising speculation that the Bank of Japan may adjust its monetary policy next week.
- Gold prices fell on Thursday as the U.S. dollar rose, though the bullion remained near record highs as traders awaited more U.S. economic data that could guide expectations for a mid-year rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
- U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose to around $80 a barrel on Thursday, extending gains from the previous session as a surprise drop in U.S. crude stocks pointed to strong demand in the world’s largest oil consumer.
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