Daily Market Analysis

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

• The dollar index fell to around 103.9 on Wednesday as investors remained on hold ahead of the Federal Reserve’s final policy decision for the year.
• Gold held in a tight range as traders awaited the Federal Reserve decision.
• Consumer prices in the United States rose unexpectedly in November.
• The Federal Reserve’s policy statement is due to be released on this day.
• Silver fell for the eighth consecutive session.
• Oil maintained a subdued tone amid concerns about increased supply, as markets await the Federal Reserve and touched levels it has not reached in five and a half months. Brent crude was traded at $72.80 and West Texas Intermediate at $68.47.
• Bitcoin is stable at the highest levels of $40,000.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for the day is proposed, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, could be between 60% and 75%. If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the alternative scenario condition level, the alternative scenario is then immediately activated, and the first scenario prediction gets cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1,974.62

First scenario: Buy gold on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1,980.65, targeting a price of $1,985.70 and then $1,992.65.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold on the break of $1,972.41, targeting a price of $1,965.97 and then $1,958.61.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $68.43 per barrel

First scenario: Buy oil on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $68.84, targeting a price of $69.31 and then $69.88.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil on the break of $68.17, targeting a price of $67.64 and then $67.06.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.07822

First scenario: Sell EURUSD on the break of $1.07773, targeting a price of $1.07613 and then $1.07400.
Alternative scenario: Buy EURUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.08001, targeting a price of $1.08185 and then $1.08410.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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GBPUSD

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.25477

First scenario: Sell GBPUSD on the break of $1.25373, targeting a price of $1.25175 and then $1.24951.
Alternative scenario: Buy GBPUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.25708, targeting a price of $1.25994 and then $1.26216.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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NAS100

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $16,598

First scenario: Sell Nasdaq on the break of $16,568, targeting a price of $16,526 and then $16,483.
Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq on the break when steady by closing the candle above the level of $16,627, targeting a price of $16,667 and then $16,713.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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Economic Calendar

(Times are in GMT+3)

 

• UK: The Gross Domestic Product Index (October) at 10:00.
• U.S.: The Producer Price Index (annually) at 16:30.
• U.S.: The Producer Price Index (monthly) at 16:30.
• U.S.: The Consumer Price Index (November) at 16:30.
• U.S.: The U.S. Crude Oil Inventory Index at 18:30.
• U.S.: The Federal Open Market Committee report at 22:00.
• U.S.: The Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision at 22:00.
• U.S.: The Federal Reserve press conference at 22:30.

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

• The dollar index dropped to around 103.9 on Wednesday as investors waited for the Federal Reserve’s final policy decision of the year.
• The Fed is likely to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, but traders will pay attention to what Fed Chair Jerome Powell says to get hints on whether interest rates will be cut in the future.
• However, the strong job market may make policymakers less gloomy than what the market expects.
• At the same time, data on Tuesday showed that the US consumer price inflation rate fell to 3.1% in November, the lowest in five months and matching the market forecast, while the core rate stayed at its lowest in over two years at 4%.
• On a monthly basis, the main inflation rate went up by 0.1%, defying the market expectation of no change, while the core rate increased slightly to 0.3%.
• Gold prices moved in a tight range on Wednesday as investors avoided taking big risks before the US Fed’s interest rate decision and policy outlook later today.
• Oil prices added to their losses on Wednesday in Asian trading, after plunging more than 3% to their lowest in six months in the previous session due to worries about excess supply and demand.