enDaily Analysis 13/11/2024
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
Dollar holds gains ahead of key inflation data
The dollar index held steady around 105.9 on Wednesday, remaining near its highest level in more than six months as investors prepared for the October consumer price index report, which could weigh on expectations of future interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Gold recovers slightly ahead of US inflation
-Recently, optimism about US economic growth under the second Trump administration, coupled with the broader market shift caused by his fiscal and monetary policies, has prompted investors to move towards riskier assets.
The possibility of tariffs during a Trump presidency is also seen as inflationary, raising expectations that the Federal Reserve may delay its monetary easing cycle next year.
Traders now see a 65% chance of another rate cut in December, down from about 80% before last week’s election.
Meanwhile, the World Gold Council reported that global gold exchange-traded funds lost about $809 million (12 tons) in early November, driven by outflows from North America, which partially offset inflows from Asia.
Gold prices witnessed a decline of -2.54 percent, as the yellow metal closed the trading session at Rs 74,631 on November 12.
-Gold consolidates; near-term outlook remains negative
-Gold consolidates in early Asian morning session. However, the possibility of early tariffs from the Trump administration has increased inflationary concerns,
This has contributed to expectations of a delay in the Fed’s easing cycle, says the head of Portuguese operations. This expectation has strengthened the US dollar, adding to the bearish momentum for gold. Therefore, the near-term outlook for the precious metal remains negative,
Stocks fell on concerns about rising bond yields as U.S. inflation looms
Asian stocks fell on Wednesday as a sharp rise in U.S. bond yields rattled investors ahead of key inflation data that could set the pace of monetary policy easing at the Federal Reserve.
Oil pares losses on tight supply but murky demand caps gains, with Brent trading at $71.00 and WTI at $67.00
Brent, WTI rise about 0.2% as tight physical market offsets demand outlook –
Coming up: API weekly U.S. crude oil inventory report
“Crude oil prices rose slightly as physical market shortfalls offset bearish sentiment on demand. Physical buyers were particularly active, snapping up any available cargoes quickly,” analysts at ANZ Bank said in a note.
But expectations of lower demand and weak demand in China, the main consumer, continued to weigh on market sentiment.
“We can expect prices to consolidate around current levels for a longer period,” said IG market strategist Yip Junrong, adding that the latest attempt to rally was quickly sold out.
“The absence of more direct fiscal stimulus from China is casting a shadow over the outlook for oil demand, along with the potential for higher US oil production with the Trump presidency and OPEC+ plans to increase production,” Yeap added.
Global oil demand will rise by 1.82 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, OPEC said in its monthly report on Tuesday, down from the 1.93 million bpd growth forecast last month, mostly due to weakness in China, the world’s biggest oil importer.
Oil prices settled up 0.1% on Tuesday on the news, after falling about 5% in the previous two sessions.
OPEC also lowered its estimates for global oil demand growth in 2025 to 1.54 million barrels per day from 1.64 million barrels per day.
The International Energy Agency, which has much less visibility, is due to release its updated forecast on Thursday.
-Bitcoin price surged above $88,000. Bitcoin is now consolidating its gains near $90,000 and may see a slight decline in the near term.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2607.47
Scenario 1: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2615.63, targeting 2622.06 and 2629.19
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2607.04 with a target price of 2597.80 and then 2589.96
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $68.12 per barrel
Scenario 1: Sell oil with a break and stability by closing a candle below $67.59 levels, targeting $67.59 and then $66.49
Alternative scenario: Buy oil by breaking the $68.27 level, targeting $68.74, then $69.30, targeting $67.59, then $66.49.
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
EURUSD
General trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.06177
Scenario 1: Sell the EUR/USD by breaking 1.06116, targeting 1.05956 and then 1.05743.
Alternative scenario: Buy the EUR/USD with a break and hold with a candle closing above 1.06351, targeting 1.06528 and then 1.06753.
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
GBPUSD
Trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.27430
Scenario 1: Selling the pound/dollar with a break and stability below the 1.27306 level, targeting the price of 1.27065 and then 1.26843
Alternative scenario: Buy the pound dollar with a break and hold with a close above 1.27606, targeting 1.27847 and then 1.28133.
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
NAS100
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 21139
Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold to close above 21220 with a target price of 21323 then 211441
Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq with break and hold with close below 21063 with target price 20939 then 20831
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
-USA Core CPI (excluding food and energy) (MoM) (Oct)
-USA Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Oct)
-USA Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Oct)
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index held steady around 105.9 on Wednesday, remaining near its highest level in more than six months as investors prepared for the October consumer price index report, which could weigh on expectations of future interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Traders are also looking ahead to Thursday’s producer price index report and Friday’s retail sales data.
Additionally, investors were closely watching the latest comments from the Federal Reserve, with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell scheduled to speak on Thursday.
The dollar continued to benefit from so-called “Trump deals,” as markets bet on strong U.S. economic growth and inflationary policies under a second Trump presidency, which would limit the Federal Reserve’s ability to cut interest rates.
Markets currently price in a 25 basis point rate cut in December at around 60%, down from 84.4% a month ago.
The dollar remained strong against most major currencies, especially the euro, which fell to its lowest level in a year.
Gold rose to around $2,610 an ounce on Wednesday, recovering slightly from a two-month low after being weighed down by a stronger U.S. dollar and lower demand for safe-haven assets ahead of key U.S. inflation data.
Oil prices rose slightly on Wednesday amid signs of tighter supplies in the near term but remained near two-week lows, a day after OPEC cut its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 and 2025.
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