Daily Market Analysis

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

• The dollar is stable ahead of key inflation data.
• Gold has changed little as investors await the US inflation report.
• The US Consumer Price Index is due to be released at 13:30 GMT on Tuesday.
• Speculators cut their net long positions in COMEX gold.
• Oil rises amid healthy demand and supply expectations after OPEC report, trading at $82.64 for Brent crude and $78.53 for West Texas Intermediate crude.
• Bitcoin stabilizes at its highest levels in over a year.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for the day is proposed, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, could be between 60% and 75%. If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the alternative scenario condition level, the alternative scenario is then immediately activated, and the first scenario prediction gets cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1,944.98   

First scenario: Buy gold on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1,949.91, targeting a price of $1,954.97 and then $1,961.91.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold on the break of $1,941.68, targeting a price of $1,935.23 and then $1,927.88.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $78.35 per barrel

First scenario: Buy oil on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $78.63, targeting a price of $79.08 and then $79.74.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil on the break of $78.21, targeting a price of $77.80 and then $77.31.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.06967

First scenario: Sell EURUSD on the break of $1.06862, targeting a price of $1.06702 and then $1.06489.
Alternative scenario: Buy EURUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.07090, targeting a price of $1.07274 and then $1.07499.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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GBPUSD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.22728

First scenario: Sell GBPUSD on the break of $1.22559, targeting a price of $1.22362 and then $1.22138.
Alternative scenario: Buy GBPUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.22896, targeting a price of $1.23181 and then $1.23402.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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NAS100

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $15,572

First scenario: Sell Nasdaq on the break of $15,524, targeting a price of $15,470 and then $15,398.
Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $15,605, targeting a price of $15,666 and then $15,729.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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Economic Calendar

(Times are in GMT+3)

 

• United Kingdom: Unemployment Rate Index at 10:00
• United Kingdom: Employment Change Index at 10:00
• Europe: Gross Domestic Product Index at 13:00
• Europe: Ifo Business Climate Index at 13:00
• United States: Annual Inflation Rate Index at 16:30
• United States: Core Inflation Rate Index at 16:30

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

• The dollar index held steady around 105.6 on Tuesday as investors prepared for the key US inflation report, which could provide clues on the path of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.
• The consensus forecast is for the consumer price index to slow to an annual rate of 3.3% in October from 3.7% in September.
• Markets are also awaiting US producer price inflation data and retail sales this week, as well as further commentary from central bank officials.
• Last week, the dollar rose on hawkish Federal Reserve messaging, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell saying the central bank is “not confident” it has done enough to bring down inflation.
• The US currency held steady against most major currencies, but is vulnerable to decline against the yen as the latter sinks deeper into potential intervention levels.
• Gold prices remained stuck in a narrow range on Tuesday as investors were reluctant to take large positions ahead of the US inflation data, which could provide more clarity on whether the Federal Reserve is likely to raise interest rates further.
• Oil prices rose on Tuesday amid expectations of good fundamentals for the market, following an OPEC report that said demand remains strong, and concerns about the potential for supply disruptions as the United States takes tough measures against Russian oil exports.