Daily Market Analysis

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

• The dollar remained largely unchanged after the downgrade of the United States by Moody.
• Gold hovered near a three-week low as dollar bulls focused on US inflation data.
• Palladium hovered near its lowest levels in five years.
• Oil prices fell amid concerns of declining demand in the United States and China, with Brent crude trading at $80.64 and West Texas Intermediate crude trading at $76.53.
• The impending decision on a Bitcoin ETF could shake up the cryptocurrency market, led by Bitcoin.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for the day is proposed, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, could be between 60% and 75%. If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the alternative scenario condition level, the alternative scenario is then immediately activated, and the first scenario prediction gets cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1,938.96  

First scenario: Buy gold on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1,941.15, targeting a price of $1,946.21 and then $1,953.16.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold on the break of $1,932.92, targeting a price of $1,926.47 and then $1,919.12.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $76.49 per barrel

First scenario: Buy oil on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $76.73, targeting a price of $77.18 and then $77.84.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil on the break of $76.31, targeting a price of $75.90 and then $75.41.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.06856

First scenario: Sell EURUSD on the break of $1.06746, targeting a price of $1.06586 and then $1.06373.
Alternative scenario: Buy EURUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.06973, targeting a price of $1.07158 and then $1.07382.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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GBPUSD

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.22297

First scenario: Sell GBPUSD on the break of $1.22120, targeting a price of $1.21923 and then $1.21699.
Alternative scenario: Buy GBPUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.22457, targeting a price of $1.22742 and then $1.22964.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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NAS100

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $15,520

First scenario: Sell Nasdaq on the break of $15,482, targeting a price of $15,428 and then $15,356.
Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $15,563, targeting a price of $15,624 and then $15,687.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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Economic Calendar

(Times are in GMT+3)

 

• No economic releases today.

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

• The dollar was little changed at around 105.8 on Monday, amid a weak market reaction after Moody’s downgraded its outlook on the United States’ credit rating from stable to negative, citing rising fiscal deficits and political gridlock in Washington.
• Moody’s said that “without taking effective fiscal policy measures to reduce government spending or increase revenue” in an environment of high interest rates, it expects “the US fiscal deficit to remain very large, significantly weakening debt affordability.”
• On the data front, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell to its lowest level in six months on Friday, coming in well below expectations.
• However, the dollar remains supported by hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell saying that the central bank is “not confident” that it has done enough to bring down inflation.
• Inflation expectations for the year and for five years have also risen, while the labor market has continued to show signs of resilience.
• Gold prices hovered near their lowest levels in three weeks on Monday as the dollar held firm and investors awaited US inflation data for further clues on whether the Federal Reserve will hold steady on interest rates or raise them.
• Oil prices fell on Monday, reversing their rise on Friday, as renewed concerns about declining demand in the United States and China weighed on market sentiment.