Daily Market Analysis

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

• The dollar held its gains on safe-haven demand, as the uptrend remains intact.
• Gold fell as traders monitored the conflict in the Middle East, sliding from a one-month high as investors grappled with war concerns.
• Oil prices remained high as investors assessed the impact of the war between Israel and Hamas, trading at $90.93 per barrel for Brent crude and $86.44 per barrel for West Texas Intermediate.
• Bitcoin began a bullish correction from the $26,550 area. The cryptocurrency is rising and facing strong resistance near $27,300 and $27,500 levels.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for the day is proposed, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, could be between 60% and 75%. If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the alternative scenario condition level, the alternative scenario is then immediately activated, and the first scenario prediction gets cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on classical technical analysis.

 

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GOLD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1,920.07

First scenario: Buy gold on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1,923.43, targeting a price of $1,928.49 and then $1,935.43.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold on the break of $1,915.20, targeting a price of $1,908.75 and then $1,901.51.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $86.48 per barrel

First scenario: Buy oil on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $86.65, targeting a price of $87.20 and then $87.70.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil on the break of $86.03, targeting a price of $85.45 and then $84.93.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.05226

First scenario: Sell EURUSD on the break of 1.05114, targeting a price of $1.04954 and then $1.04781.
Alternative scenario: Buy EURUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.05344, targeting a price of $1.05531 and then $1.05741.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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GBPUSD

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.21537

First scenario: Sell GBPUSD on the break of $1.21365, targeting a price of $1.21167 and then $1.20943.
Alternative scenario: Buy GBPUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.21702, targeting a price of $1.21987 and then $1.22208.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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NAS100

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $15,158

First scenario: Sell Nasdaq on the break of $15,125, targeting a price of $15,071 and then $15,000.
Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $15,206, targeting a price of $15,267 and then $15,330.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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Economic Calendar

(Times are in GMT+3)

 

• United States: Empire State Manufacturing Index (ISM) at 16:30
• United States: Harker (member of FOMC) Speech at 23:30

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

• The dollar index held steady around 106.5 on Monday after rising about 1% in the previous two sessions, as the escalation of tensions in the Middle East boosted demand for the safe-haven currency.
• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed on Sunday to “destroy Hamas” as Israeli forces prepare for a ground invasion of the Gaza Strip, while Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi warned that the war could expand if the Israeli blockade on Gaza is not lifted.
• U.S. inflation data that came in stronger than expected last week also supported the dollar.
• Investors are now looking to new comments from Federal Reserve officials this week for more clues about the central bank’s interest rate outlook.
• The markets are also awaiting the release of a large number of U.S. economic data this week, including retail sales, housing permits, and industrial production numbers.
• Gold fell to around $1,920 an ounce on Monday, giving up some of the gains it made in the previous session as traders continued to monitor the war between Israel and Hamas and its impact on the global economy.
• The metal rose more than 3% on Friday, as the escalation of tensions in the Middle East boosted demand for gold as a safe haven.
• Gold also rose due to a decline in Treasury yields amid growing expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve may have finished raising interest rates.
• Oil prices fell on Monday, partially reversing Friday’s gains as investors awaited to see if the conflict between Israel and Hamas would spread to other countries, which could lead to higher prices and deal a fresh blow to the global economy.