enDaily Analysis 13/08/2024
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The dollar index held steady around 103.1 on Tuesday as traders refrained from making big bets ahead of key U.S. inflation figures this week that could confirm whether price growth has continued to stabilize.
Gold stabilizes near record highs
Israeli airstrikes on Khan Yunis on Monday killed at least 18 civilians and injured several others.
-Moreover, Ukrainian forces broke through the Russian border last Tuesday, advancing west of Kursk and exposing weak points in the Russian border defenses.
Meanwhile, investors will be looking ahead to U.S. producer price data today and consumer price figures on Wednesday for further insight into inflation and clues about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path.
Expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September remain unchanged, although market opinion is now divided over whether the cut will be by 50 basis points or a more modest 25 basis points.
Low interest rates enhance the appeal of non-interest-bearing precious metals such as gold.
Gold rose slightly in early Asian trading. An analyst said safe-haven buying amid rising geopolitical tensions helped push gold prices higher.
Investors are also bracing for U.S. inflation data that could shed more light on the Federal Reserve’s outlook for interest rates, he said.
Gold typically has an inverse relationship with interest rates, with higher rates making non-interest-bearing bullion less attractive to investors. Spot gold rose 0.2% to $2,476.18 an ounce.
-Japanese stocks rise, Asian shares supported before US data
Japanese stocks led Asian markets higher on Tuesday as the yen weakened, ahead of a slew of data this week, including U.S. inflation data, that will help investors gauge the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook after volatile markets last week.
Oil retreats as markets focus back on demand concerns, with Brent trading at $79.00 and WTI at $76.00.
OPEC’s forecast for a cut in global oil demand in 2024 has highlighted the dilemma facing the broader OPEC+ group in increasing output from October.
OPEC’s 2024 forecast cut was the first since July 2023, and comes after growing signs that demand in China is lagging expectations due to lower diesel consumption while a property crisis hobbles the world’s second-largest economy.
“Concerns about crude oil demand remain,” said IG market strategist Yip Junrong, adding that reservations remain ahead of upcoming U.S. inflation data.
“Any reversal of elevated economic risks could weigh on oil prices, as OPEC+ has cut its 2024 demand forecast and is set to roll back its production cuts from October, potentially signaling a less tight oil market ahead,” Yeap said.
-Bitcoin price remained above the $57,650 support area. Bitcoin price is now rising and a move above the $60,000 resistance area could target.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2462.44
Scenario 1: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2467.14, targeting 2473.57 and 2480.70
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2455.76, targeting 2449.31 and then 2443.08
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $78.00 per barrel
Scenario 1: Buy oil with a break and stability by closing a candle above the $78.28 levels, targeting a price of $78.75 and then $79.31.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil by breaking the $77.60 level, targeting $77.08 and then $76.50.
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
EURUSD
General trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.09332
Scenario 1: Buy EUR/USD by breaking 1.09481, targeting 1.09665 and then 1.09890.
Alternative scenario: Sell the EUR/USD with a break and stability with a candle closing below 1.09253, targeting 1.09093 and then 1.08880.
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
GBPUSD
Trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.28034
Scenario 1: Buy the pound dollar with a break and stability above the level of 1.28101, targeting the price of 1.28242 and then 1.28442
Alternative scenario: Sell the pound dollar with a break and stability with a close below 1.27884, targeting 1.27743 and then 1.27565
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
NAS100
Trend: Down
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 18703
Scenario 1: Selling the Nasdaq with a break and stability with a close below 18589, targeting a price of 18464 and then 18357
Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close above 18746 with a target price of 18849 then 18967
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
From USA PPI (YoY) (July) 15:30
From USA Producer Price Index (MoM) (July) 15:30
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index held steady around 103.1 on Tuesday as traders refrained from making big bets ahead of key U.S. inflation figures this week that could confirm whether price growth has continued to stabilize.
US producer inflation data is due later on Tuesday, while consumer inflation figures will follow on Wednesday.
US retail sales figures are also due out on Thursday.
Meanwhile, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said over the weekend that despite weaker inflation figures in May and June, inflation remains uncomfortably above the MPC’s 2% target.
Since then, markets have eased bets on a Fed rate cut, seeing a greater chance of a 25 basis point cut in September than a larger 50 basis point cut.
However, analysts expect the US Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy by more than 100 basis points this year.
The dollar was little changed against most major currencies, but continued to gain against the yen as carry trades on the yen lost momentum.
Gold fell below $2,470 an ounce on Tuesday but remained close to record highs, benefiting from safe-haven appeal amid rising geopolitical tensions.
Oil prices fell slightly on Tuesday, breaking a five-day winning streak, as markets refocused on demand concerns after OPEC on Monday cut its forecast for demand growth in 2024 due to a weak outlook in China.
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