enDaily Analysis 13/06/2024
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The dollar index stabilized at about 104.8 on Thursday, after losing half a percent in the previous session, affected by lower-than-expected inflation data and reassurance that the Federal Reserve (the US central bank) will reduce interest rates this year.
-Gold declines as the Federal Reserve signals an interest rate cut only once this year
-Gold will trade volatile until clarity regarding the first interest rate cut
It seems that gold reaching $3,000 per ounce is a long shot
“While the CPI reading was a net positive for gold, the takeaway from the Fed meeting is that the number of interest rate cuts in 2024 has been reduced and is still a long way down the road,” said Tim Waterer, senior market analyst.
-“In the short term, I expect gold to trade in a volatile manner until we get more clarity on when the first rate cut from the Fed might arrive.”
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady on Wednesday and delayed the start of rate cuts, perhaps until late December, with policymakers indicating that inflation levels remain high.
Policymakers had envisioned in their December 2023 forecasts the imminent start of three years of steady interest rate cuts.
-Inflation data published hours before the Fed’s statement showed that the CPI did not rise at all on a monthly basis in May, leading some analysts to say that the latest forecasts were actually “outdated.”
Strong jobs data in the United States last week and reports that the Chinese central bank is halting gold purchases sparked the largest daily decline in bullion since November 2020 last week.
– Traders and industry experts said that gold’s rapid rise to successive record highs shows every sign of continuing into the second half of 2024 as the base case for bullion remains strong, although a price of $3,000 per ounce seems a long way off.
-The Chinese yuan declines from its highest level in a week due to companies’ demand for the dollar
-Oil is declining due to growth concerns in the United States and the abundance of crude supplies, with Brent crude trading at levels of $82.00, as well as West Texas Intermediate crude at levels of $77.00.
US crude inventories rose more than expected last week, driven largely by a jump in imports, while fuel inventories also increased more than expected, data from the Energy Information Administration showed on Wednesday.
Also affecting prices was the bearish report issued by the International Energy Agency, which warned of increased supply in the near future.
“This is in stark contrast to the optimistic report issued by OPEC+ earlier this week,” analysts said. The oil group maintained its expectations for increased demand.”
-Bitcoin price started to rise strongly above $68,500. BTC even tested $70k, but after the feed there was a significant bearish reaction.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: bearish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2312.66
The first scenario: selling gold at a fraction and holding below 2306.91, with a target price of 2300.46 and 2294.23.
Alternative scenario: Buy gold at a break and hold above 2318.29, with a target price of 2324.72 and then 2331.85.
Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline
CRUDE OIL
Trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $77.85 per barrel
The first scenario: Buying oil at a break and holding steady by closing the candle at the highest level at $78.37, targeting a price of $78.84, then 79.40. Alternative scenario: Selling oil at a break of $77.69, targeting a price of $77.17, then 76.58.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
EURUSD
General trend: bearish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.08043
The first scenario: selling the euro/dollar at a break of 1.07917, targeting a price of 1.07758, then 1.07545.
Alternative scenario: Buy the Euro/Dollar at a break and hold steady by closing the candle above 1.08145, targeting the price of 1.08329 then 1.08554.
Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline
GBPUSD
Trend: down
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.27800
The first scenario: selling the pound dollar at a break and holding below the level of 1.27626, targeting the price of 1.27429 then 1.27205.
Alternative scenario: Buy the pound dollar at a break and hold firm by closing above 1.27962, targeting a price of 1.28248 then 1.28470.
Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline
NAS100
Trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 19893
The first scenario: Buying Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close above 19928, targeting a price of 19997 then 20078.
Alternative scenario: sell Nasdaq at a break and hold firm by closing below 19826, price of 19769, then 19718.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
-From the United States of America, unemployment complaints rate index 15:30
-From the United States of America Producer Price Index Index (annual) (May) 15:30
-From USA Producer Price Index (monthly) (May) 15:30
-Speech by the Governor of the Central Bank of Canada. 20:00
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index stabilized at about 104.8 on Thursday, after losing half a percent in the previous session, affected by lower-than-expected inflation data and reassurance that the Federal Reserve (the US central bank) will cut interest rates this year.
The annual inflation rate in the United States slowed to 3.3% in May from 3.4% in April, defying market expectations of no change.
The core measure also fell more than expected.
Meanwhile, the Fed held the federal funds rate as widely expected and signaled just one rate cut this year that could come in late December.
However, the dot plot indicated a more aggressive cutting path for 2025.
The dollar suffered heavy losses against most major currencies, but it recovered quickly against the yen as investors awaited the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy decision later this week.
Gold prices fell on Thursday after the Federal Reserve (US central bank) at its latest policy meeting reduced interest rates to just one more later this year, less than previously expected, even as inflation slowed in May.
Oil prices fell in early trading on Thursday, as investors realized that the Federal Reserve (US central bank) is likely to postpone a possible interest rate cut until December, while abundant US crude oil and fuel inventories weighed on the market.
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