Daily Market Analysis

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

The dollar index steadied around 102.9 on Wednesday as investors continued to assess hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data and its implications for the timing of Federal Reserve rate cuts.

• Gold retreats as U.S. inflation surprise weighs on mid-year rate cut bets
• Consumer prices rose 3.2% in February compared to the year-ago period, beating economists’ expectations of 3.1%.
• Chinese yuan weakens as sticky U.S. inflation weighs on rate cut hopes
• Investors now look to U.S. retail sales figures and producer inflation data later in the week.
• Monthly UK growth figures are due out in London morning, followed by European industrial production figures that are expected to turn sharply negative.
• UK monthly GDP is expected to rise by 0.2% for January after a 0.1% fall in December, although it is difficult to read too much into such volatile releases.
• Market expectations for a rate cut at the Fed’s June meeting have only eased slightly to around 67% from 71% earlier in the week, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool
• Oil rises on strong US demand, focus on Fed policy, with Brent crude trading at $82.00 and WTI crude at $77.00.
• OPEC sticks to its forecast for strong global oil demand growth of 2.25 million barrels per day in 2024 and 1.85 million bpd in 2025, and raised its economic growth forecast for this year.
• Bitcoin price holds its gains above the $70,000 resistance level. BTC is now showing positive signals and could aim to move above the $73,000 level.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2159.06

The first scenario: Buy gold at a break and hold above 2163.76, with a target price of 2168.82 and 2175.77. Alternative scenario: Sell gold at a break and hold below 2155.53, with a price target of 2149.08 and then 2141.73. Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $77.78 per barrel

The first scenario: Buying oil at a break and holding steady by closing the candle at the highest level at $77.99, targeting a price of $78.46, then 79.02. Alternative scenario: Selling oil at a break of $77.31, targeting a price of $76.79, then 76.20.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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EURUSD

 

General trend:- Bullish

  Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

  Current price: 1.09311

The first scenario: Buying Eurodollars at a break of 1.09386, targeting a price of 1.09571, then 1.09795. Alternative scenario: Selling Eurodollars at a break of 1.09159, targeting a price of 1.08999, then 1.08786.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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GBPUSD

 

Trend: down

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.27930

The first scenario: selling the pound dollar at a fraction and holding below the level of 1.27699, targeting the price of 1.27501 then 1.27277. The alternative scenario: buying the pound dollar at a break and holding steady by closing above 1.28034, targeting the price of 1.28320 then 1.28542.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

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NAS100

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 18487

The first scenario: Buying Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close above 18509, targeting the price of 18549 then 18595. Alternative scenario: Selling Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close below 18450, targeting a price of 18408 then 18365.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

From the UK:

• Gross Domestic Product (Monthly) (January) 10:00

From the US:

• US Crude Oil Inventories 17:30

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index steadied around 102.9 on Wednesday as investors continued to assess hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data and its implications for the timing of Federal Reserve rate cuts.

• Data on Tuesday showed that the headline inflation rate accelerated to 3.2% in February, above expectations and the January figure of 3.1%, while the core rate fell to 3.8% from 3.9%, but was still above the expected 3.7%.
• Both measures rose 0.4% on a monthly basis.
• Markets currently expect the Fed to hold rates steady in March and May, while traders continued to bet on a move in June.
• Investors are now looking to U.S. retail sales figures and producer inflation data later in the week.
• The dollar was steady across the board, but remained volatile against the yen amid rising speculation that the Bank of Japan may adjust its monetary policy this month.
• Gold prices steadied on Wednesday, after falling the most in a month in the previous session, as U.S. inflation raised concerns that the Federal Reserve may delay cutting rates until after June.
• Oil prices rose on Wednesday on expectations of strong global demand, including in the United States, the world’s largest consumer, and while the somewhat steady U.S. inflation did not significantly change expectations, the Federal Reserve may start cutting rates soon.