Daily Market Analysis

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

• The dollar index rose to around 104.2 on Tuesday, extending gains from the previous session as investors awaited a key inflation reading that could guide interest rate expectations.
• Gold steadies ahead of US inflation data, spot gold may retest support at $2,012
• US CPI due at 16:30 Mecca time
• At least 7 Fed speakers due to speak this week
• Focus on US CPI report on Tuesday
• China and Hong Kong on holiday
• Oil prices rise on Middle East risks; Brent crude at $82.00, WTI at $77.00
• Middle East conflict keeps prices high
• US crude oil stocks likely rose last week, products fell
• API data on US crude stocks at 00:30 Mecca time
• OPEC monthly report
• Bitcoin hits $50,000 for first time since 2021

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2022.39

The first scenario: Selling gold at a fraction and holding below 2016.10, with a target price of 2009.66 and 2002.30. Alternative scenario: Buying gold at a break and holding above 2024.34, with a price targeting of 2029.40 and then 2036.34.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $77.10 per barrel

The first scenario: Buying oil at a break and holding steady by closing the candle at the highest level at $77.30, targeting a price of $77.77, then 78.33. Alternative scenario: Selling oil at a break of $76.62, targeting a price of $76.10, then 75.52.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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EURUSD

 

General trend: – Bearish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.07711

The first scenario: sell the euro/dollar at a break of 1.07524, targeting a price of 1.07364, then 1.07151. Alternative scenario: buy the euro/dollar at a break of 1.07752, targeting a price of 1.07936, then 1.08161.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

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GBPUSD

 

Trend: down

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.26217

The first scenario: selling the pound dollar at a break and holding below the level of 1.26057, targeting the price of 1.25859 then 1.25635. Alternative scenario: buying the pound dollar at a breaking point and holding steady at a close above 1.26393, targeting the price of 1.26679 then 1.26900.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages leads to a decline

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NAS100

 

Trend: bullish

  Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 17956

The first scenario: Buying Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close above 17973, targeting a price of 18012 then 18058. Alternative scenario: Selling Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close below 17913, targeting a price of 17872 then 17828.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

• China: Chinese New Year holiday
• United States: Core Consumer Price Index (Excluding Food and Energy) (Monthly) (January) 4:30 PM Mecca time
• United States: Consumer Price Index (Monthly) (January) 4:30 PM Mecca time
• United States: Consumer Price Index (Annual) (January) 4:30 PM Mecca time

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

• The dollar index rose to around 104.2 on Tuesday, extending gains from the previous session as investors awaited a key inflation reading that could guide interest rate expectations.
• Headline inflation is expected to have cooled to 3%, the lowest since June, while core inflation is forecast to have slowed to 3.8%, the lowest in two and a half years.
• Data from the New York Fed on Monday also showed that consumer inflation expectations for one year and five years were unchanged at 3% and 2.5%, respectively.
• Meanwhile, stronger-than-expected US jobs data and hawkish comments from Fed officials have supported the view that interest rates are likely to remain higher for longer.
• Markets are now pricing in 110 basis points of total rate cuts for 2024, down from around 160 basis points at the end of last year.
• Gold prices were little changed on Tuesday as investors refrained from making big bets ahead of the US inflation report that could offer fresh insights into the timing of the first rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
• Oil prices rose slightly on Tuesday on concerns that Middle East tensions could disrupt supplies, but uncertainty about the pace of potential US rate cuts and their impact on fuel demand capped gains.
• The cryptocurrency has risen about 15.7% so far this year, supported by regulatory approvals for Bitcoin ETFs in the United States and expectations of lower interest rates.