enDaily Analysis 12/11/2024
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The dollar index rose above 105.6 on Tuesday, hitting its highest level in more than four months, as “Trump deals” continued to dominate financial markets.
Gold hovers at one-month low
Investors continued to shift toward riskier assets as markets assessed the broader implications of Trump’s election victory for fiscal strategies and monetary policy.
Moreover, the possibility of tariffs early in Trump’s presidency could stoke inflation, raising expectations that the Federal Reserve may delay its monetary easing cycle next year.
Elsewhere, data from the World Gold Council shows that holdings of Indian gold exchange-traded funds have doubled over the past four years, reaching a record 54.5 tonnes as of October 31.
Gold ETFs have become an effective tool for investors around the world who want to invest their money in the yellow metal.
-India’s gold ETF hoard doubles in 4 years to 54.5 tonnes: WGC data
Gold rises amid possible technical recovery
-Gold rose in early Asian trading on a possible technical rebound. Front-month gold futures fell 2.8% on Monday in their biggest daily decline since June 2021, according to FactSet data. While the precious metal is typically seen as a haven in uncertain times,
– Expectations of Trump’s expansionary policies that strengthen the US dollar are attracting investors away from precious metals,
Gold looks likely to continue trading below $2,670 an ounce, reflecting pressures from recent economic and political developments in the United States.
Oil prices remain stable after falling due to Chinese stimulus, with Brent crude trading at $71.00 and West Texas Intermediate at $67.00.
OPEC’s monthly report is due later on Tuesday, and the market will be looking for further downward revisions to demand from the group’s forecasts through 2025, which could add downward pressure on prices.
“Spot spreads for Brent and WTI have recently collapsed, approaching contango, indicating a better-supplied physical market,” ING analysts said in a note.
When the futures market is in contango, spot contracts are lower than futures contracts, indicating that the market is well supplied in the near term or that demand for oil will be greater in the future.
The US dollar closed higher on Monday as markets braced for more cues from US inflation data and Federal Reserve speakers this week.
This makes US-denominated commodities, such as oil, more expensive for holders of other currencies, and tends to affect prices.
Bitcoin price is up more than 10% and is trading above $86,000. Bitcoin shows no signs of stopping and could target $100,000 in the near term.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2616.36
Scenario 1: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2625.69, targeting 2632.12 and 2639.24
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2614.30 with a target price of 2607.86 and then 2600.02
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $67.83 per barrel
Scenario 1: Sell oil with a break and stability by closing a candle below $67.59 levels, targeting $67.59 and then $66.49
Alternative scenario: Buy oil by breaking the $68.27 level, targeting $68.74, then $69.30, targeting $67.59, then $66.49.
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
EURUSD
General trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.06421
Scenario 1: Sell the EUR/USD by breaking 1.06311, targeting 1.06151 and then 1.05938.
Alternative scenario: Buy the EUR/USD with a break and hold with a candle closing above 1.06539, targeting 1.06723 and then 1.06948.
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
GBPUSD
Trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.28399
Scenario 1: Selling the pound dollar with a break and stability below the level of 1.28314, targeting the price of 1.28074 and then 1.27852
Alternative scenario: Buy the pound dollar with a break and hold with a close above 1.28615, targeting 1.28855 and then 1.29142.
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
NAS100
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 21213
Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold to close above 21341 with a target price of 21444 then 21562
Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq with break and hold with close below 21184 with target price 21060 then 20952
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
There is no important economic data today.
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index rose above 105.6 on Tuesday, hitting its highest level in more than four months, as “Trump deals” continued to dominate financial markets.
Expectations of a second Trump presidency, along with the possibility of Republicans winning Congress, have fueled optimism about deregulation and tax cuts, which could boost economic growth and increase inflation.
This, in turn, may limit the Fed’s ability to cut interest rates.
Trump’s pledges to raise tariffs on major trading partners, especially China and the European Union, as well as his plans to tighten immigration, have added to concerns about inflationary pressures.
Looking ahead, investors are focusing on the latest US inflation data, due out this week, which will provide further insight into the economic outlook.
Moreover, fresh comments from Fed officials are expected to help guide market expectations.
The dollar rose broadly, with the euro and yuan falling to multi-month lows against the US dollar.
Gold prices fell to around $2,620 an ounce on Tuesday, hovering near a one-month low after falling more than 2 percent in the previous session, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and lower demand for safer assets.
Oil prices were little changed in early trading on Tuesday, awaiting further price direction from OPEC’s monthly report after China’s stimulus plan and concerns about oversupply calmed markets in previous sessions.
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