enDaily Analysis 12/08/2024
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The dollar index held steady around 103.1 on Monday as investors looked ahead to key inflation data this week for confirmation that price growth remains stable.
Gold falls ahead of US inflation data
Expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September remained in place, with some central bank officials saying last week that inflation appeared to be falling enough to consider a rate cut as early as next month.
However, market views are now divided on the extent of interest rate cuts after positive US jobs data last week eased concerns that a weak labour market could signal a recession.
-In addition, the yellow metal’s tendency to rise continued, as gold’s appeal as a safe haven continued to receive support from ongoing geopolitical tensions.
Reports indicated another Israeli airstrike on Gaza and Moscow pledged a “firm response” to Ukrainian incursions into Russia.
-US producer inflation data is due on Tuesday, followed by consumer inflation figures on Wednesday.
Asian stocks rise broadly, hopes for benign inflation in the US
Stock markets were broadly steadier across Asia on Monday as a holiday in Japan removed a source of recent volatility, and investors looked ahead to key economic data in the United States and China for an update on the global growth outlook.
Oil continues its gains for the fifth session, supported by tensions in the Middle East, with Brent crude trading at $79.00 and West Texas crude at $76.00.
“The support comes from better-than-expected US data released last week, which eased concerns about a US recession,” said Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG.
“There is also a great deal of concern about when Iran might retaliate for Israel’s assassination of key Hamas and Hezbollah leaders. It seems to be a matter of when — not if.”
Iran and Hezbollah have vowed to respond to the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah military commander Fouad Shukr.
“The market is still waiting for Iran’s response,” said Warren Patterson, head of commodity research at ING.
-In addition, Israeli airstrikes on Gaza intensified on Saturday with an airstrike on a school complex that killed at least 90 people, according to Gaza’s civil emergency service, although Israel said the death toll was exaggerated. Hamas cast doubt on its participation in new ceasefire talks on Sunday.
-Bitcoin price started a downside correction from the resistance area at $62,700. Bitcoin price is now consolidating near $58,500 and struggling to recover.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2435.09
Scenario 1: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2437.09, targeting 2443.52 and 2450.65
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2425.71, targeting 2419.26 and then 2413.03
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $76.07 per barrel
Scenario 1: Buy oil with a break and stability by closing a candle above the $76.40 levels, targeting $76.87 and then $77.44.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil by breaking the $75.73 level, targeting $75.20 and then $74.62
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
EURUSD
General trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.09204
Scenario 1: Buy EUR/USD by breaking 1.09328, targeting 1.09513 and then 1.09737
Alternative scenario: Sell the EUR/USD with a break and stability with a candle closing below 1.09101, targeting 1.08941 and then 1.08728
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
GBPUSD
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.27716
Scenario 1: Buy the pound dollar with a break and stability above the level of 1.27788, targeting the price of 1.27929 and then 1.28129
Alternative scenario: Selling the pound dollar with a break and stability with a close below 1.27571, targeting 1.27430 and then 1.27252
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
NAS100
Trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 18629
Scenario 1: Selling the Nasdaq with a break and stability with a close below 18556, targeting a price of 18432 then 18325
Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close above 18713 with a target price of 18817 then 18935
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
-There is no important economic data released today.
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index held steady around 103.1 on Monday as investors looked ahead to key inflation data this week for confirmation that price growth remains stable.
US producer inflation data is due on Tuesday, while consumer inflation figures will follow on Wednesday.
US retail sales figures are also due out on Thursday.
Last week, the dollar fell to a seven-month low after a weak July jobs report raised fears of a recession in the United States, with markets speculating about an emergency rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
The rise in the value of the yen, due to government interventions and interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, has also exacerbated the dollar’s decline.
However, sentiment has since stabilised after a string of US economic data eased concerns about an economic slowdown, prompting the dollar to recoup most of the losses it suffered last week.
Markets also reduced bets on a Fed rate cut, although expectations for more than 100 basis points of rate cuts this year remained intact.
Gold fell below $2,430 an ounce on Monday as investors turned their focus to U.S. inflation data coming this week for clues on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path.
Oil prices rose for a fifth straight session on Monday, clinging to last week’s more than 3% gain, as recession fears in the United States eased while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East supported prices.
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