Daily Market Analysis

 

 

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

The dollar index settled above 105.2 on Wednesday after rising for three consecutive sessions, as traders remained on the sidelines ahead of key US inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate decision.

-Gold is trading cautiously before the appearance of US inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s decision

-Any tendency toward cutting interest rates twice to see gold prices higher – Analyst

-The Fed policy meeting will conclude later today, and Powell will speak

-US Consumer Price Index data is scheduled to be released at 15:30 Mecca time

“Gold prices have been treading water amid a waiting game for greater signals on the Fed’s policy path,” said Yip Jun, market strategist at IG. “Any tendency towards two rate cuts could be seen as a more pessimistic stance, which could lead to higher gold prices.” Rong.

Investors will assess the inflation situation when US CPI numbers are published, just hours before the Federal Reserve concludes its two-day policy meeting.

-The market is divided on whether the Fed will cut interest rates once or twice this year after the recent strong US labor report, so attention will focus on policymakers’ updated economic forecasts and Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference. (Fedwatch)

-Strong US jobs data and reports that China’s central bank was suspending gold purchases sparked the biggest daily decline in bullion since November 2020 last week.

“While China took a break from gold in May, I don’t think the People’s Bank of China is done with its diversification efforts away from the US dollar,” Tim Waterer, senior market analyst at KCM Trade, said in a note. .

“So it may just be a ‘selective buyer’ of gold in the future.”

Industry officials said that demand for gold in Asia is increasing even though prices are hovering near the record levels recorded in May.

Asian stocks rose supported by the technology sector, while the dollar held steady on Wednesday ahead of a key US inflation report and the Federal Reserve’s policy decision that will determine the near-term outlook for interest rates.

– Oil rises amid optimistic expectations for demand,
with Brent crude trading at $82.00 and West Texas Intermediate crude at $78.00.

The Energy Information Administration raised its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 to 1.10 million barrels per day from a previous estimate of 900,000 barrels per day, while the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) maintained its 2024 forecast for relatively strong growth in global oil demand, based on… To expectations. For travel and tourism in the second half.

Prices fell more than 2 percent last week after OPEC and its allies said they would phase out production cuts starting in October.

“Crude oil rose as OPEC maintained its expectations to boost demand,” analysts said in a note, adding that oil demand is likely to be driven by China and other emerging economies.

-Bitcoin price extended its losses below the $67,500 support area. BTC tested the $66,000 support area and is now trying to make a recovery wave.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2317.19

The first scenario: selling gold at a break and holding below 2308.19, with a target price of 2301.74 and 2295.51.

Alternative scenario: Buy gold at a break and hold above 2319.57, targeting a price of 2326.00 and then 2333.13.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $78.16 per barrel

The first scenario: Buying oil at a break and holding steady by closing the candle at the highest level at $78.37, targeting a price of $78.84, then 79.40. Alternative scenario: Selling oil at a break of $77.69, targeting a price of $77.17, then 76.58.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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EURUSD

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.07459

The first scenario: selling the euro/dollar at a break of 1.07897, targeting a price of 1.07137, then 1.06924.

Alternative scenario: Buy the Euro/Dollar at a break and hold by closing the candle above 1.07524, targeting the price of 1.07709 then 1.07933.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

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GBPUSD

 

Trend: down

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.27472

The first scenario: selling the pound dollar at a break and holding below the level of 1.27235, targeting the price of 1.27037 then 1.26813.

Alternative scenario: Buy the pound dollar at a break and hold firm by closing above 1.27570, targeting the price of 1.27856 then 1.28078.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

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NAS100

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 19269 First scenario: Buy Nasdaq at a break and hold with a close above 19304, targeting the price of 19374 then 19454 Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq at a break and hold with a close below 19203 price of 19146 then 19094

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

-From USA Core CPI (excluding food and energy) (monthly) (May) 15:30

-From the United States of America Consumer Price Index (annual) (May) 15:30

-From the United States of America Consumer Price Index (monthly) (May) 15:30

-From the United States of America, US crude oil inventory 17:30

-From the United States of America, Federal Open Market Committee economic forecasts at 21:00

-From the United States of America, Federal Open Market Committee report, 21:00

-From the United States of America, the interest decision issued by the US Federal Reserve at 21:00

-From the United States of America Federal Reserve press conference 21:30

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index settled above 105.2 on Wednesday after rising for three straight sessions, as traders remained on the sidelines ahead of key US inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate decision.

The index has risen more than 1% since Friday on the back of stronger-than-expected US jobs data that prompted traders to reduce their bets on Federal interest rate cuts.
Investors will focus on the central bank’s updated economic outlook, which is expected to show smaller interest rate cuts than policymakers had previously expected.

Markets are now seeing just one rate cut from the Fed this year, with a move in September becoming unlikely.

Meanwhile, data showed that producer prices in Japan rose more than expected in May, raising concerns that it could translate into a higher level of consumer inflation.

In China, consumer prices rose less than expected in May, while producer prices remained deflationary.

Gold prices stabilized on Wednesday as investors awaited the US Federal Reserve’s policy announcement for insights into when it will cut interest rates this year and the May inflation report due later today.

Oil prices rose on Wednesday amid upbeat views on global demand from the US Energy Information Administration and OPEC, supported by industry data that showed US crude oil inventories fell more than expected last week.