Daily Market Analysis

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

• The dollar index dipped around 104 on Monday as investors cautiously await U.S. consumer price inflation data on Tuesday for clues on the likely path of interest rates.
• Gold steadies in thin trade; eyes on Fed in data-heavy week
• Gold speculators raise net long positions
• At least 7 Fed speakers due to speak this week
• Focus on U.S. CPI report on Tuesday
• China, Hong Kong, Japan and Singapore on holiday
• Oil starts week lower after Israel says it has “completed” strikes on Gaza; Brent crude at $81.00, WTI at $76.00
• Oil and gas remain attractive to investors despite lost profits
• Bitcoin rises for the seventh straight day, currently trading above $48,000.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2024.00

The first scenario: selling gold at a fraction and holding below 2017.82, with a target price of 2011.37 and 2004.02. Alternative scenario: buying gold at a break and holding above 2026.05, with a price targeting of 2031.11 and then 2038.06.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $76.51 per barrel

The first scenario: Buying oil at a break and holding steady by closing the candle at the highest levels of $76.75, targeting a price of $77.22, then 77.87. Alternative scenario: Buying oil at a break of $76.07, targeting a price of $75.55, then 74.97.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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EURUSD

 

General trend: – Bearish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.07924

The first scenario: sell the euro/dollar at a break of 1.07816, targeting a price of 1.07656, then 1.07443. Alternative scenario: buy the euro/dollar at a break of 1.08043, targeting a price of 1.08228, then 1.08452.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

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GBPUSD

 

Trend: down

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.26295

The first scenario: selling the pound dollar at a fraction and holding below the level of 1.26168, targeting a price of 1.25970, then 1.25746. Alternative scenario: buying the pound dollar at a breaking point, and holding steady at a close above 1.26503, targeting a price of 1.26789, then 1.27011.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages leads to a decline

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NAS100

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 18022

The first scenario: Buying Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close above 18055, targeting a price of 18095 then 18141. Alternative scenario: Selling Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close below 17996, targeting a price of 17954 then 17911.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

• Japan: National Foundation Day holiday

• China and Singapore: Chinese New Year holiday

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

• The dollar index dipped around 104 on Monday as investors cautiously await U.S. consumer price inflation data on Tuesday for clues on the likely path of interest rates.
• On Friday, the U.S. dollar was pressured as revised U.S. figures showed a smaller increase in the December consumer price index.
• According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the CPI rose 0.2% on a monthly basis, slightly below the initial report of 0.3%.
• However, the core CPI was unchanged at 0.3%.
• The figures confirmed the disinflationary trend seen last year and reinforced cautious bets on Federal Reserve monetary policy.
• Markets still see a slim chance of a rate cut by the Fed in March, but are pricing in a move in May.
• Traders are also looking ahead to retail sales figures on Thursday and producer inflation data on Friday, as well as comments from at least seven Fed officials this week.
• Gold prices held a narrow range on Monday in thin holiday trade, with investors awaiting comments from a slew of Federal Reserve officials in a data-heavy week.
• Oil prices fell in early Asian trade on Monday after Israel said it had “completed” a series of strikes in the southern Gaza Strip, slightly easing supply concerns from the Middle East.

• Nasdaq Composite hits new record high at 18,000.
• Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency, is nearing the long-awaited $50,000 level, as investor interest in newly launched Bitcoin ETFs grows. According to a recent Bloomberg report, Bitcoin is on a positive trajectory, posting daily gains for seven consecutive days.