enDaily Analysis 11/11/2024
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
Dollar steady ahead of key inflation data
The dollar index held steady around 105 on Monday, with investors hesitant to make big bets ahead of U.S. inflation data due later this week that could provide crucial clues about the Federal Reserve’s next policy decisions.
Gold falls for second session
Last week, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but signaled a cautious and measured approach to future cuts.
Markets are also speculating that the Federal Reserve may slow down and ease the pace of interest rate cuts, as the US president-elect’s policies – which focus on raising tariffs, cutting taxes and deregulating restrictions – are expected to widen the deficit and stimulate inflation.
However, investors price in a 65% chance of another 25 basis point rate cut in December.
Traders are also set to digest other key US data throughout the week, including the Producer Price Index, weekly jobless claims, and retail sales.
-Gold is steady at the start of the Asian session as traders continue to digest the recent strength of the US dollar and the bullish trend in Treasury yields in the wake of Trump’s victory in the US presidential election.
Overall, Saxo Bank sees no reason to change its bullish stance on precious metals,
“At worst, we see last week’s correction as a healthy response to weeks of election-focused buying.”
-Asian stocks fall on China stimulus disappointment; Bitcoin extends record rally
Hong Kong stocks led declines in Asia on Monday after Beijing’s latest stimulus package fell short of investors’ expectations, overshadowing Wall Street’s record highs from Friday and futures pointing to more strength on the reopening.
Oil continues to lose ground due to China’s expectations, with Brent crude trading at $75.00 and WTI crude at $71.00.
– Data over the weekend showed China’s consumer inflation weakened in October and factory prices fell further, highlighting the risks of deflation despite Beijing’s stimulus efforts in late September.
This came after Beijing announced a debt swap plan on Friday, indicating limited stimulus for housing and consumption.
-Moreover, concerns about supply disruptions due to Hurricane Rafael in the US Gulf of Mexico have receded.
Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounding Trump’s policies is casting a shadow over the global outlook, although potential sanctions on OPEC members Iran and Venezuela could tighten global oil supplies and support prices.
With a surplus expected next year, investors are now turning to key market forecasts, starting with OPEC’s forecast on Tuesday.
Oil falls; China concerns weigh on markets
Oil prices fell in early Asian trading. The market remains concerned about the impact of Trump’s promised tariffs on economic growth in China, which could reduce demand for oil.
– Trump’s return as US president could also boost US oil production, although “this is a long-term story and depends on the economics of oil drilling,” they added.
West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 0.4% to $70.10 a barrel in the previous month; Brent crude futures fell 0.3% to $73.64 a barrel.
-Bitcoin price is up more than 5% and is trading above $80,000. Bitcoin price is bullish and could target a move above the $82,000 resistance area in the near term.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2670.58
Scenario 1: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2675.63, targeting 2682.06 and 2689.19
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2664.25, targeting 2657.80 and then 2649.97
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $69.77 per barrel
Scenario 1: Buy oil by breaking the $70.22 level, targeting $70.69 and then $71.26.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil with a break and stability by closing a candle below $69.54 levels, targeting $69.02 and then $68.44
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
EURUSD
General trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.07116
Scenario 1: Sell the EUR/USD by breaking 1.07071, targeting 1.06911 and then 1.06698.
Alternative scenario: Buy the EUR/USD with a break and hold with a candle closing above 1.07298, targeting 1.07483 and then 1.07707.
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
GBPUSD
Trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.29089
Scenario 1: Selling the pound dollar with a break and stability below the level of 1.290011, targeting the price of 1.28771 and then 1.28549
Alternative scenario: Buy the pound dollar with a break and hold with a close above 1.29312, targeting 1.29552 and then 1.29839.
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
NAS100
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 21284
Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold to close above 21341 with a target price of 21444 then 21562
Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq with break and hold with close below 21184 with target price 21060 then 20952
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
There is no important economic data today.
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index held steady around 105 on Monday, with investors hesitant to make big bets ahead of U.S. inflation data due later this week that could provide crucial clues about the Federal Reserve’s next policy decisions.
Traders are also awaiting the latest comments from Federal Reserve officials, with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell scheduled to speak on Thursday.
Last week, the dollar saw sharp swings, but ultimately closed higher, driven in part by concerns about inflationary policies and the rising debt burden in the wake of Donald Trump’s election victory.
The Federal Reserve also cut interest rates by 25 basis points but offered little guidance on the pace of future cuts.
Despite recent volatility, the dollar has held firm against most major currencies, and is expected to rise further against the Chinese yuan and Australian dollars.
This comes amid disappointing stimulus measures and weak inflation data from China.
Gold fell to around $2,670 an ounce on Monday, posting a second straight decline as markets braced for U.S. inflation data and a series of Federal Reserve speeches this week to gauge the path of U.S. interest rates in light of a second Trump presidency.
West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell to around $70 a barrel on Monday, extending their decline of about 3% from the previous session, as weak expectations in China, the largest importer, continued to weigh on the market.
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