enDaily Analysis 11/10/2024
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The dollar index held steady around 102.9 on Friday and was on track for a second straight weekly gain as the latest U.S. economic data and central bank signals prompted traders to scale back expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut.
Gold extends gains as Fed outlook awaits
-U.S. headline inflation slowed less than expected in September, while core inflation rose more than expected, halting recent progress toward easing price pressures.
This view was reinforced by the latest minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting released on Wednesday, which indicated that the Federal Reserve will cut borrowing costs at a slower pace than previously thought.
However, the sharp rise in unemployment claims has challenged the notion that the U.S. labor market can withstand tighter interest rates.
-Currently, the odds of a 25 basis point Fed rate cut in November are 86%.
Investors are now awaiting producer price inflation data later today for more information on price trends.
-Over the week, gold is poised to post its second weekly decline.
-Gold rises amid weaker dollar, lower Treasury yields-
Gold rose in early Asian trading on Tuesday amid a weaker U.S. dollar and lower Treasury yields, both of which typically boost the appeal of the dollar-denominated, non-interest-bearing precious metal. Gold also continues to find support from geopolitical tensions, as
-Expectations of a possible further escalation in tensions “may support gold prices as demand for safe-haven assets grows and risk-off sentiment spreads.”
Asian stocks were set to post their first weekly loss in five on Friday as a stunning rally in Chinese shares came to a halt, although all eyes were on details of Beijing’s long-awaited fiscal stimulus this week.
Oil falls but heads for weekly gain on potential supply disruption in Middle East, with Brent trading at $77.00 and WTI at $73.00
-Over the week, both benchmarks were headed for a 1% to 2% gain.
“Oil prices continue to rise weekly, with rising geopolitical risks fueling the recovery,” said IG market strategist Yip Junrong. But he added that reservations about high crude inventories and gradual U.S. interest rate easing may have capped the recent rally.
-In the United States, Hurricane Milton slammed into the Atlantic Ocean on Thursday after making a devastating path across Florida, killing at least 10 people and leaving millions without power. The devastation could cut fuel consumption in some areas of the world’s largest oil producer and consumer.
“Investors are assessing how the damage caused by the hurricane will impact the U.S. economy and fuel demand,” said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, president of NS Trading, a unit of Nissan Securities.
He added that “oil prices are likely to hover around their current 200-day average levels, with the main focus on whether Israel will respond to Iranian oil facilities.”
The 200-day average price for Brent crude is $81.68 per barrel, and for West Texas Intermediate crude it is $77.36 per barrel.
Crude oil prices rose this month after Iran fired more than 180 rockets at Israel on Oct. 1, raising the possibility of retaliation against Iranian oil facilities. Israel has yet to respond, and crude prices have fallen and remained relatively stable throughout the week.
But Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant said any strike against Iran would be “lethal, precise and surprising.”
Iran supports several groups fighting Israel, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and the Houthis in Yemen.
Bitcoin price continued its losses and traded below $60,000. Bitcoin is now trying to recover and is facing hurdles near $60,800.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2642.29
Scenario 1: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2649.17, targeting 2655.60 and 2662.73
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2637.79, targeting 2631.34 and then 2623.50
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $74.56 per barrel
Scenario 1: Buy oil by breaking the $75.03 level, targeting $75.50 and then $76.06.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil with a break and stability by closing a candle below the $74.35 levels, targeting $73.83 and then $73.24.
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
EURUSD
General trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.09372 Scenario 1: Sell EUR/USD after breaking 1.09306, targeting 1.09146 and then 1.08933
Alternative scenario: Buy the EUR/USD with a break and hold with a candle closing above 1.098533, targeting 1.09717 and then 1.09942.
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
GBPUSD
Trend: Down
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.30513 Scenario 1: Sell the pound dollar with a break and stability below the level of 1.30323, targeting the price of 1.30082 and then 1.29860
Alternative scenario: Buy GBP/USD with a break and hold at a buy close of 1.30623 with a target price of 1.30864 then 1.31150
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
NAS100
Trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 20424
Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close above 20521, targeting 20624 then 20742
Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq with break and hold with close below 20364 with target price 20239 then 20132
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
-From UK GDP (MoM) (Aug) 9:00
-From Germany German CPI (MoM) (Sep) 9:00
-From USA Producer Price Index (YoY) (Sep) 15:30
-From USA Producer Price Index (MoM) (Sep) 15:30
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index held steady around 102.9 on Friday and was on track for a second straight weekly gain as the latest U.S. economic data and central bank signals prompted traders to scale back expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut.
Consumer inflation slowed less than expected in September, data released Thursday showed, raising concerns that more hot inflation data could force the Federal Reserve to skip interest rate cuts at upcoming meetings.
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bousik also said Thursday that he would consider keeping interest rates steady at the November meeting depending on economic conditions.
Meanwhile, initial jobless claims surprised everyone, hitting a 14-month high of 258,000. Investors are now looking ahead to producer price inflation data on Friday for more insight into price trends.
The dollar traded near recent highs against most major currencies, but was slightly lower against the yen.
Risk Disclaimer
Any information/articles/materials/content provided by WRC1 or displayed on its website is intended to be used solely for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a consultation on how the client should trade.
Although WRC1 has taken care to ensure that the content of such information is accurate, - it cannot be held responsible for any omission/error/miscalculation and cannot guarantee the accuracy of any material or any information contained herein.
Therefore, any reliance you place on such material is strictly at your own risk. Please note that the responsibility for using or relying on such material rests with the client and WRC1 accepts no liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation, any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
Risk Warning: FX/CFDs are complex instruments and carry a high risk of losing money quickly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how FX/CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
You should make sure that, depending on your country of residence, you are allowed to trade with WRC1 products. Please ensure that you are familiar with the company’s risk disclosure.
