enDaily Analysis 11/10/2023
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
- The dollar remains weak due to cautious signals from the Federal Reserve.
- Gold steadies as Federal Reserve officials adopt a more dovish policy tone.
- The dollar index hits lowest level since September 29.
- Oil prices rise on ongoing supply concerns. Brent crude trades at $87.93 and West Texas Intermediate at $84.74.
- Bitcoin prices fall and investors pull out amid continued tensions in the Middle East.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario for the day is proposed, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, could be between 60% and 75%. If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75%.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the alternative scenario condition level, the alternative scenario is then immediately activated, and the first scenario prediction gets cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: bearish
Time interval: 30 minutes
Current price: $1,860.05
First scenario: Buy gold on the break when stable by closing the candle above $1,863.67, targeting a price of $1,868.15 and then $1,872.65.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold on the break of $1,857.90, targeting a price of $1,852.43 and then $1,847.62.
Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend (still on a decline trend).
CRUDE OIL
General trend: bullish
Time interval: 30 minutes
Current price: $84.73 per barrel
First scenario: Buy oil on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $84.94, targeting a price of $85.50 and then $86.00.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil on the break of $84.75, targeting a price of $83.75 and then $83.22.
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.
EURUSD
General trend: bullish
Time interval: 30 minutes
Current price: $1.06078
First scenario: Sell EURUSD on the break of $1.05943, targeting a price of $1.05783 and then $1.05610.
Alternative scenario: Buy EURUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.06173, targeting a price of $1.06360 and then $1.06569.
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.
GBPUSD
General trend: bullish
Time interval: 30 minutes
Current price: $1.22925
First scenario: Sell GBPUSD on the break of $1.22770, targeting a price of $1.22573 and then $1.22349.
Alternative scenario: Buy GBPUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.23107, targeting a price of $1.23392 and then $1.23613.
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.
NAS100
General trend: bullish
Time interval: 30 minutes
Current price: $15,302
First scenario: Sell Nasdaq on the break of $15,251, targeting a price of $15,197 and then $15,125.
Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $15,332, targeting a price of $15,392 and then $15,456.
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
- Europe: Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 10:00
- US: Producer Price Index (PPI) at 15:30
- US: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting at 22:00
Fundamental Analysis
- The dollar index held steady below 106 on Wednesday, after losing more than 5% over the past five sessions, under pressure from cautious messages from Federal Reserve officials.
- Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Tuesday that the central bank does not need to raise interest rates any further to bring inflation down to its 2% target, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari later reversed his comments that day.
- Markets were currently betting that the Fed would keep interest rates unchanged at its November policy meeting.
- Investors were now looking to the minutes of the central bank’s last meeting on Wednesday, as well as key inflation data on Thursday to guide monetary policy expectations.
- In the meantime, investors continued to monitor the conflict between Israel and Hamas, which shook financial markets on Monday and briefly led to increased demand for the dollar as a safe haven.
- With the dollar down after several US Federal Reserve officials signaled that the recent rise in Treasury yields could make further rate hikes less necessary, gold prices held steady near a one-week high on Wednesday.
- Oil prices rose on Wednesday as investors grappled with the potential for supply disruptions due to the situation in the Middle East.
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