Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

The dollar index fell below 101.5 on Wednesday, giving up recent gains as investors reacted to the first and only debate between U.S. presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump before the November election.

Gold steady ahead of US inflation report

Last week’s jobs report offered limited insights following a mixed report, with the U.S. economy adding fewer jobs than expected, while the unemployment rate fell slightly.

The annual inflation rate in the United States is expected to slow for the fifth straight month to 2.6% in August, down from 2.9% in July, while the monthly inflation rate is expected to remain unchanged at 0.2%.

Markets now see a 67% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at next week’s Fed meeting, with a 33% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

-Less restrictive monetary policy benefits gold by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing gold assets.

Traders also closely followed the first debate between US presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in anticipation of the elections scheduled for next November.

Gold prices are steady in early Asian trading as the market looks for more clarity on the scope of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

“Gold continues to do its job, holding near all-time highs, and patiently awaiting the next catalyst that could fuel a fresh rally.”

Investors will be closely watching the inflation report due later in the day.

A below-consensus US CPI could send gold to fresh highs on expectations of higher interest rate cuts.

Asian stocks and U.S. stock futures fell on Wednesday, while the dollar retreated after a fierce U.S. presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump kept investors on edge.

Oil prices recover on hurricane supply disruption fears, with Brent crude trading at $70.00 and WTI at $66.00

“The market rebounded spontaneously as Tuesday’s drop was significant,” said Yuki Takashima, an economist at Nomura Securities, adding that supply disruption concerns due to Francine also provided support.

“However, downward pressure is likely to continue in the near term as investors worry about slowing demand due to the economic slowdown in China and the US,” he said, adding that he had cut his forecast range for WTI crude for the rest of the year to $60-80 from $65-85 this week.

– Tropical Storm Francine has strengthened into a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said Tuesday, sending Louisiana residents fleeing inland and oil and gas companies shutting down production.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency said on Tuesday that about 24% of crude oil production and 26% of natural gas production in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico were shut down due to the storm.

-Bitcoin price started a good rise above the $56,500 resistance level. Bitcoin is now struggling to surpass the $58,000 resistance level and consolidate its gains.

---

 

Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

---

 

GOLD

 

General trend: Upward

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2526.73

Scenario 1: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2529.01, targeting 2535.44 and 2542.56

Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2517.62, targeting 2511.18 and then 2503.34

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

---

 

CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: Down

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $66.15 per barrel

Scenario 1: Sell oil by breaking the $65.73 level, targeting $65.20 and then $64.62.

Alternative scenario: Buy oil with a break and hold with a candle closing above $66.40, targeting $66.87 and then $67.44

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

---

 

EURUSD

 

General trend: Down

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.10565

Scenario 1: Sell EUR/USD after breaking 1.10360, targeting 1.10178 and then 1.09965.

Alternative scenario: Buy the EUR/USD with a break and hold with a candle closing above 1.10565, targeting 1.10750 and then 1.10974.

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

 

---

GBPUSD

 

Trend: Down

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.30887

Scenario 1: Buy the pound dollar with a break and stability above the 1.31126 level, targeting the price of 1.31366 and then 1.31653.

Alternative scenario: Sell the pound dollar with a break and stability with a close below 1.30835, targeting 1.30585 and then 1.30363

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

---

 

NAS100

 

Trend: Down

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 18789

Scenario 1: Selling the Nasdaq with a break and stability with a close below 18690, targeting a price of 18565 and then 18458

Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close above 18846 with a target price of 18950 then 19068

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

---

 

Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

-USA Core CPI (excluding food and energy) (MoM) (Aug) 15:30
-USA Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Aug) 15:30
-USA Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Aug) 15:30
-USA Crude Oil Inventories 17:30

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index fell below 101.5 on Wednesday, giving up recent gains as investors reacted to the first and only debate between U.S. presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump before the November election.

Analysts noted that the chances of a Harris presidency have risen slightly, putting pressure on the dollar, which has been supported by expectations of more tariffs and increased fiscal spending under a Trump presidency again.

Markets are also bracing for the August consumer inflation report, which could help determine the size of the Fed’s expected rate cut next week.

Federal Reserve officials have signaled their readiness to begin easing policy this month, with Fed Governor Christopher Waller saying he would be open to a large cut if needed.

Markets currently see a 66% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut, with a 34% chance of a larger 50 basis point cut, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

Gold held steady near $2,520 an ounce on Wednesday as markets prepared for a U.S. inflation report later in the day for clarity on the extent of the Federal Reserve’s likely rate cuts.

Oil prices rose on Wednesday, recouping some of the previous day’s losses, as concerns about Hurricane Francine disrupting production in the United States, the world’s biggest producer, outweighed worries about weak global demand.