Daily Market Analysis

 

 

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

The dollar index stabilized above 105 on Tuesday after hitting a four-week high in the previous session, as investors prepare for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and CPI report this week.

-Gold declines as markets await the results of the Federal Reserve meeting and consumer price index data

Analysts said: China will resume buying bullion as soon as prices fall

-US Consumer Price Index data is scheduled to be released on Wednesday

-The US Federal Open Market Committee meeting begins on Tuesday

-“I suspect the Fed’s hands are tied after the strong employment report, as it likely won’t enable them to signal the September cut that traders so desperately want to hear. This could lead to gold experiencing another decline or two amid rising yields and the US.

The May Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report due on Wednesday will be the next major data point alongside the Federal Reserve concluding its two-day meeting on the same day.

“The fact that we will see inflation data just hours before the Fed’s interest rate decision means that we may see last-minute panic and high levels of volatility if inflation rises,” Simpson said.

-Updated economic forecasts from Federal Reserve officials this week are expected to show smaller interest rate cuts than policymakers expected three months ago amid unexpectedly strong inflation. (Fedwatch)

Strong US jobs data and reports that China’s central bank is halting gold purchases led bullion to fall about 3.5%, or $83, on Friday, the biggest daily decline since November 2020.

-China, the largest official buyer of gold in the sector, is expected to resume its bullion buying spree once prices decline from the record high levels recorded in May.

-Asian stocks are cautious as European Union policy turmoils

-: Apple’s annual developers conference kicks off today. The big emergence of artificial intelligence is coming

Oil fell as cautious investors awaited the Federal Reserve meeting and the US Consumer Price Index data, with Brent crude trading at $81.00 and West Texas Intermediate crude at $77.00.

Prices rose about three percent to a one-week high on Monday, supported by expectations that the Northern Hemisphere’s summer holiday season will boost fuel demand this summer, gains that some analysts said were likely to be short-lived given the continued possibility of higher interest rates. .

-“More conviction in oil prices may be needed for a more sustainable recovery with a move above the $83.00 level, given that the broader trend in oil prices remains leaning to the downside with a series of higher highs since April,”

-Bitcoin price failed to stay above the $68,500 support area. BTC extended its losses and is now showing bearish signs below the $68,800 level.

-Bitcoin price remained above the $68,500 support area. BTC is now consolidating and may aim for a new surge above the $70,150 resistance level.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2301.12

The first scenario: selling gold at a fraction and holding below 2295.47, with a price target of 2289.03 and 2282.80.

Alternative scenario: Buy gold at a break and hold above 2306.86, with a target price of 2313.29 and then 2320.41.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: bearish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $77.34 per barrel

The first scenario: selling oil at a break and holding steady by closing the candle below the $76.96 level, targeting a price of $76.44, then 75.86. Alternative scenario: buying oil at a break of the $77.64 level, targeting a price of $78.11, then 78.68.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

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EURUSD

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes) Current price: 1.07683

The first scenario: selling the euro/dollar at a break of 1.07545, targeting a price of 1.07385, then 1.07172.

Alternative scenario: Buy the Euro/Dollar at a break and hold by closing the candle above 1.07772, targeting the price of 1.07957 then 1.08181.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

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GBPUSD

 

Trend: down

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.27258

The first scenario: selling the pound dollar at a break and holding below the level of 1.27123, targeting the price of 1.26925, then 1.26702.

Alternative scenario: Buy the pound dollar at a break and hold firm by closing above 1.27459, targeting the price of 1.27745 then 1.27966.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

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NAS100

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 19106

The first scenario: Buy the Nasdaq at a break and hold steady by closing above 19142, targeting the price of 19212 then 19292.

Alternative scenario: sell Nasdaq at a break and hold firm by closing below 19041, price of 18984, then 18933.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

There are no important events for today

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index held above 105 on Tuesday after hitting a four-week high in the previous session, as investors braced for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and CPI report this week.

On Friday, the index rose 0.8% after strong US jobs data prompted traders to reduce their expectations for a cut in federal interest rates.

The data showed that the US economy added 272,000 jobs in May, much higher than the revised reading of 165,000 jobs in April and well above expectations of 185,000 jobs.

Markets are now seeing just one rate cut from the Fed this year, which is expected to happen in November.

The dollar also rose to its highest level in a month against the euro on Monday as far-right parties gained in the European Parliament elections, sparking political uncertainty in the region.

Elsewhere, the dollar hit a one-week high against the yen ahead of the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting this week.

The Bank of Japan is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged, but is likely to discuss reducing its monthly bond purchases.
Gold prices fell on Tuesday as investors waited for key US inflation data and the results of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting for details of the central bank’s plans to cut interest rates against its inflation target.

Oil prices fell on Tuesday, as investors waited for key US inflation data and the results of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting to form a clearer picture of where inflation is headed and how that will impact fuel demand.