enDaily Analysis 12/03/2024
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The dollar index steadied around 102.8 in thin trading on Tuesday as investors braced for a key U.S. inflation reading that could provide clues on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path.
- Gold prices fell below $2,180 an ounce on Tuesday as investors turned cautious ahead of a key U.S. inflation reading that could impact Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations.
- Rising geopolitical concerns in the Middle East continue to support safe-haven demand, while signals pointing to a Fed rate cut
- Traders are currently pricing in three to four quarter-point U.S. rate cuts, with a 75% chance of the first coming in June,
- Asian stocks resumed their recent upward trend on Tuesday, hitting seven-month highs even as many traders awaited US inflation data due later today.
- Asian stocks rise, focus turns to US inflation and BOJ
- The yen is on track for its biggest daily decline against the dollar in a month on Tuesday, as recent comments from Japanese officials have dampened bets on an imminent policy shift by the Bank of Japan early next week.
- Oil rises as Middle East tensions persist, demand concerns limit gains, with Brent crude trading at $82.00 and WTI crude at $77.00.
- Elsewhere, investors continued to monitor the ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas, which have made little progress.
- Bitcoin has set a new record by surpassing $72,000, cementing its status as a digital counterpart to gold and surpassing the market value of silver.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2176.19
The first scenario: Buy gold at a break and hold above 2180.51, with a target price of 2185.48 and 2192.42. Alternative scenario: Sell gold at a break and hold below 2172.19, with a price target of 2165.74 and then 2158.39.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
CRUDE OIL
Trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $77.88 per barrel
The first scenario: Buying oil at a break and holding steady by closing the candle at the highest level at $78.07, targeting a price of $78.54, then 79.10. Alternative scenario: Selling oil at a break of $77.39, targeting a price of $76.87, then 76.28.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
EURUSD
General trend:- Bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.09363
The first scenario: Buying Eurodollars at a break of 1.09496, targeting a price of 1.09681, then 1.09905. Alternative scenario: Selling Eurodollars at a break of 1.09269, targeting a price of 1.09109, then 1.08896.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
GBPUSD
Trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.28077
The first scenario: Buy the pound dollar at a break and hold at the highest level of 1.28292, targeting a price of 1.28578 then 1.28800. Alternative scenario: sell the pound dollar at a break and hold at a close below 1.27957, targeting a price of 1.27759 then 1.27535.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
NAS100
Trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 18325
The first scenario: Buying Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close above 18355, targeting a price of 18394 then 18440. Alternative scenario: Selling Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close below 18296, targeting a price of 18254 then 18210.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
- Europe: German Consumer Price Index (Monthly) (February) 10:00
- United States: Core Consumer Price Index (Excluding Food and Energy) (Monthly) (February) 15:30
- United States: Consumer Price Index (Monthly) (February) 15:30
- United States: Consumer Price Index (Annual) (February) 15:30
- Europe: German Consumer Price Index (Monthly) (February) 10:00
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index steadied around 102.8 in thin trading on Tuesday as investors braced for a key U.S. inflation reading that could provide clues on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path.
- The dollar lost more than 1% last week as Fed Chair Powell told Congress that the central bank still needs to become more confident that inflation is moving sustainably to 2% before cutting interest rates, though it is not far from that point.
- Meanwhile, data on Monday showed that U.S. consumer inflation expectations for the next year were steady at 3% in February.
- The headline CPI is expected to remain hot in February due to rising gasoline prices, but core inflation is likely to slow further amid falling auto prices and rising rents.
- Markets are currently not pricing in any Fed rate cuts in March or May, but are betting on a move in June.
- Meanwhile, data on Monday showed that U.S. consumer inflation expectations for the next year were steady at 3% in February.
- Gold traded near record highs hit on Friday, as Fed Chair Powell and several ECB members said last week that rate cuts are likely to start sometime in 2024.
- Oil prices rose on Tuesday as ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continued to fuel concerns, but gains were capped by bearish demand sentiment and as the market awaited monthly reports from oil agencies.
- While the war between Israel and the Palestinian Hamas movement has not led to a major disruption in oil supplies, Iran-aligned Yemeni Houthis have been attacking ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden since November in what they say is a campaign of solidarity with the Palestinians.
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