Daily Market Analysis

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

• The dollar is poised to end the week on a high as Federal Reserve officials have resisted speculation that U.S. interest rates have already peaked.
• Gold is gearing up for a second week of declines due to Powell’s hawkish comments. Gold has fallen 1.6% so far this week.
• Palladium is on track for its worst week in 11 months.
• Platinum is set to see its worst week since June 2021.
• Oil is heading for its third weekly decline as concerns over the conflict in the Middle East subside. Brent crude is trading at $80.64 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude is trading at $76.43 a barrel.
• Bitcoin bulls are ready to charge: 200-day SMA rise and historical trend signal a target price of $50,000.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for the day is proposed, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, could be between 60% and 75%. If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the alternative scenario condition level, the alternative scenario is then immediately activated, and the first scenario prediction gets cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1,957.18  

First scenario: Buy gold on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1,962.44, targeting a price of $1,976.50 and then $1,974.44.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold on the break of $1,954.21, targeting a price of $1,947.76 and then $1,940.40.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $76.02 per barrel

First scenario: Buy oil on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $76.30, targeting a price of $76.75 and then $77.41.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil on the break of $75.88, targeting a price of $75.47 and then $74.98.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.06689

First scenario: Sell EURUSD on the break of $1.06574, targeting a price of $1.06414 and then $1.06201.
Alternative scenario: Buy EURUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.06802, targeting a price of $1.06986 and then $1.07211.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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GBPUSD

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.22249

First scenario: Sell GBPUSD on the break of $1.22035, targeting a price of $1.21838 and then $1.21614.
Alternative scenario: Buy GBPUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.22372, targeting a price of $1.22657 and then $1.22879.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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NAS100

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $15,248

First scenario: Sell Nasdaq on the break of $15,196, targeting a price of $15,142 and then $15,070.
Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $15,277, targeting a price of $15,338 and then $15,401.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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Economic Calendar

(Times are in GMT+3)

 

• United Kingdom: GDP at 10:00
• United States: Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 18:00

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

• The dollar held steady above 105.5 on Friday and is set to end the week higher as Federal Reserve officials resisted speculation that U.S. interest rates have already peaked.
• Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said on Thursday that the central bank is “not confident” that it has done enough to bring down inflation.
• Fed Governor Michelle Bowman also previously hinted at the possibility of further rate hikes due to the strength of the economy, while Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said it is premature to declare victory on inflation.
• On the data front, weekly U.S. jobless claims fell by 3,000 to 217,000 last week, compared to expectations of 218,000 and after a revised increase of 220,000 in the prior period.
• The dollar is on track to end the week higher against most major currencies, with the most notable buying activity seen against the Australian dollar after cautious signals from the Reserve Bank of Australia.
• Gold prices continued their downward trajectory for the second week in a row, weighed by rising U.S. dollar and Treasury yields following hawkish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
• Oil prices were little changed on Friday after rising in the previous session but are expected to fall for the third week as concerns about supply disruptions from the Israel-Hamas conflict ease, allowing demand concerns to reassert themselves.