enDaily Analysis 10/10/2024
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The dollar index held steady around 102.9 on Thursday, hovering near its highest level in about two months as investors prepared for the September consumer price index report that could influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision in November.
Gold rises ahead of US CPI data
Gold prices recently fell to their lowest levels in about three weeks, due to declining expectations that the Federal Reserve will implement more stringent policy measures.
Minutes of the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting revealed that policymakers were divided on whether to cut interest rates by half a percentage point, with some favoring a smaller cut of a quarter point as they sought assurance that inflation was falling steadily and were less concerned about the labor market.
This is in line with last week’s strong jobs report, which indicates the resilience of the labor market.
Investors are currently pricing in an 83% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in November.
Meanwhile, gold remains an attractive safe haven amid ongoing concerns over conflict in the Middle East.
Asian stocks got a boost on Thursday from Chinese shares as the country’s central bank launched a 500 billion yuan facility to stimulate capital markets, while the dollar held near a two-month high ahead of U.S. inflation data later in the day.
-Gold rises slightly; US inflation data in the spotlight
Gold prices rose in early Asian trade. Investors are awaiting the US consumer price index report due later today, which markets expect to show slowing inflation, according to
– Market sentiment was steadily pricing in a more cautious pace of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, and investors turned back to the safe-haven US dollar, which limited gold price gains.
Oil prices rise due to the American storm and fears of an Israeli-Iranian conflict, with Brent crude trading at $77.00 and West Texas crude at $73.00.
The world’s largest oil-producing and consuming country was hit by a second major storm, Hurricane Milton, which hit the west coast of Florida, causing hurricanes and threatening to raise sea levels.
The storm has already boosted demand for gasoline in the state, with about a quarter of gas stations running out of supplies, helping to support crude oil prices.
Prices were also boosted by investors remaining wary of escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant promising that an Israeli strike against Iran would be “deadly, precise and surprising.”
-US President Joe Biden spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about Israel’s plans on Iran in a 30-minute call on Wednesday that the White House described as “very direct and constructive.”
Biden “continues to discourage Israel from targeting oil facilities, but there is growing concern that Israel’s allies have little influence over its strategy,” analysts at ANZ Bank said in a note on Thursday.
-While threats to the oil-producing Middle East remain a top priority, demand concerns continue to underpin the baseline outlook. The U.S. Energy Information Administration on Tuesday cut its 2025 demand forecast due to weaker economic activity in China and North America.
Bitcoin price continued its losses and traded below $61,850. Bitcoin now holds the support of $60,000, but it remains vulnerable.
-Bitcoin price corrected its gains and tested the $61,850 area. Bitcoin is consolidating and could target a fresh high above the $62,500 resistance level.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2614.74 Scenario 1: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2616.66 with a target price of 2623.39 and 2630.52
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2605.58, targeting 2599.13 and then 2591.29
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Upwar
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $73.35 per barrel Scenario 1: Buy oil by breaking $73.55 with a target price of $74.02 then $74.58
Alternative scenario: Sell oil with a break and stability by closing a candle below the $72.87 levels, targeting $72.35 and then $71.76.
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
EURUSD
General trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.09386 Scenario 1: Sell EUR/USD by breaking 1.09306, targeting 1.09146 and then 1.08933
Alternative scenario: Buy the EUR/USD with a break and hold with a candle closing above 1.098533, targeting 1.09717 and then 1.09942.
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
GBPUSD
Trend: Down
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.30716 Scenario 1: Sell the pound dollar with a break and stability below the level of 1.30552, targeting the price of 1.30312 and then 1.30090
Alternative scenario: Buy GBP/USD with a break and hold at a buy close of 1.30853 with a target price of 1.31093 then 1.31380
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
NAS100
Trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 20460 Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close above 20521 with a target price of 20624 then 20742
Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq with break and hold with close below 20364 with target price 20239 then 20132
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
-US Consumer Price Index (MoM) (September) 15:30
-US Consumer Price Index (YoY) (September) 15:30
-US Unemployment Claims Rate 15:30
Fundamental Analysis
• Gold rose above $2,610 an ounce on Thursday after falling for six straight sessions, ahead of
key U.S. consumer price data later in the day for further clues on the
Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook.
• Oil prices rose on Thursday, supported by rising fuel demand as a major storm approaches Florida and concerns about
potential supply disruptions in the Middle East amid rising tensions between Israel and major oil producer Iran.
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