Daily Market Analysis

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

• The dollar is under pressure from temporary factors, facing pressure from growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in November.
• Gold is holding on to gains fueled by conflicts in the Middle East as the US dollar and bonds decline. Gold posted its biggest daily jump since early May on Monday.
• US 10-year Treasury notes are rising amid safe-haven bids and the Federal Reserve’s cautious policy.
• Oil is falling amid investor caution as the market looks to the turmoil in the Middle East. Brent crude is trading at $87.65 and West Texas Intermediate is trading at $84.67.
• Bitcoin prices have not been affected by the events and remain volatile above the $27,500 level.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for the day is proposed, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, could be between 60% and 75%. If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the alternative scenario condition level, the alternative scenario is then immediately activated, and the first scenario prediction gets cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on classical technical analysis. 

 

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GOLD

 

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1,861.21
First scenario: Buy gold on the break when stable by closing the candle above $1,865.18, targeting a price of $1,869.67 and then $1,874.16.

Alternative scenario: Sell gold on the break of $1,859.94, targeting a price of $1,853.94 and then $1,849.14.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend (still on a decline trend).

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CRUDE OIL

 

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $84.57 per barrel

First scenario: Buy oil on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $84.94, targeting a price of $85.50 and then $86.00.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil on the break of $84.33, targeting a price of $83.75 and then $83.22.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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EURUSD

 

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.05615

First scenario: Sell EURUSD on the break of $1.05404, targeting a price of $1.05404 and then $1.05231.
Alternative scenario: Buy EURUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.05794, targeting a price of $1.05981 and then $1.06191.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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GBPUSD

 

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.22286
First scenario: Sell GBPUSD on the break when staying below $1.22167, targeting a price of $1.21969 and then $1.21746.

Alternative scenario: Buy GBPUSD on the break when stable by closing the candle above the levels of $1.22504, targeting a price of $1.22789 and then $1.23010.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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NAS100

 

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $15,211

First scenario: Sell Nasdaq on the break of $15,172, targeting a price of $15,118 and then $15,046.
Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $15,253, targeting a price of $15,314 and then $15,377.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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Economic Calendar

(Times are in GMT+3)

 

• Lagarde, ECB President, speaks at 15:00 CET
• Bostic, FOMC member, speaks at 16:30 ET
• Waller, Fed governor, speaks at 20:30 ET
• Kaskari, FOMC member, speaks at 22:00 ET

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

• The dollar index held onto its recent losses, trading around 106 on Tuesday, under pressure from growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in November.
• Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said the central bank will need to “proceed with caution” given the recent rise in yields, while Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said there may be less need to tighten monetary policy if long-term interest rates remain elevated.
• The markets are pricing in an 86% chance that the Fed will keep rates unchanged next month.
• Investors are now looking to US inflation data this week for guidance on monetary policy expectations.
• In the meantime, investors continued to monitor the conflict between Israel and Hamas, which shook financial markets on Monday and briefly led to increased demand for the dollar as a safe haven.
• Gold prices continued to rise on Tuesday, a day after posting sharp gains amid growing market uncertainty due to the conflict in the Middle East, as cautious comments from top US Federal Reserve officials weighed on the dollar and bond yields.
• Since gold does not pay any interest, it tends to lose its appeal when interest rates rise.
• Yields on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes fell sharply from their 2007 highs, along with the dollar index.
• Bond yields fell after top Fed officials signaled on Monday that rising yields on long-term bonds could deter the Fed from further increases in the short-term interest rate.
• Oil prices fell on Tuesday, after rising more than 4% in the previous session, amid caution from traders as they monitored the potential for supply disruptions amid military clashes between Israel and Hamas.