Daily Market Analysis

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

• The dollar index held steady around 102.5 on Wednesday after making some gains in the previous session, as investors awaited key U.S. inflation data that could provide clues on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy moves.
• Gold held its ground ahead of U.S. inflation data.
• The market sees a 68% chance of a rate cut in March.
• Investors are awaiting U.S. inflation data on Thursday.
• Oil rose for a second day after U.S. crude oil stockpiles fell, trading at $77 a barrel for Brent and $72 a barrel for West Texas Intermediate.
• Inflation in Australia slowed and hit a record low.
• Nvidia shares broke through resistance and rose 6.5% to reach an all-time high of $522.53.
• Bitcoin slid after the Securities and Exchange Commission’s social media account was hacked, sending a fake approval message to the European Training Foundation. If the listing of a Bitcoin fund is not announced on Wednesday, we could see a sharp decline in Bitcoin.

Smart technical reports

How they work

A likely scenario for the day is proposed, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, could be between 60% and 75%. If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the alternative scenario condition level, the alternative scenario is then immediately activated, and the first scenario prediction gets cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on classical technical analysis.

GOLD

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $2,025.37

First scenario: Sell gold on the break of $2,022.95, targeting a price of $2,016.50 and then $2,009.15.
Alternative scenario: Buy gold on the break when steady by closing the candle above the level of $2,031.18, targeting a price of $2,036.24 and then $2,043.18.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

CRUDE OIL

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $72.51 per barrel

First scenario: Buy oil at a break of $72.79, targeting a price of $73.26 and then $73.82.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil on the level of $72.11, targeting a price of $71.59 and then $71.01.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

EURUSD

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.09279

First scenario: Buy EURUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the level of $1.09406, targeting a price of $1.09590 and then $1.09815.
Alternative scenario: Sell EURUSD on the break of $1.09178, targeting a price of $1.09018 and then $1.08805.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

GBPUSD

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.26922

First scenario: Buy GBPUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the level of $1.27135, targeting a price of $1.27421 and then $1.27642.
Alternative scenario: Sell GBPUSD on the break of $1.26799, targeting a price of $1.26601 and then $1.26377.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

NAS100

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $16,831

First scenario: Buy Nasdaq on the break when steady by closing the candle above the level of $16,859, targeting a price of $16,899 and then $16,945.
Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq on the break of $16,800, targeting a price of $16,758 and then $16,715.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

Economic Calendar

(Times are in GMT+3)

• United States: U.S. Crude Oil Stocks at 18:30

Fundamental Analysis

• The dollar index held steady around 102.5 on Wednesday after making some gains in the previous session, as investors awaited key U.S. inflation data that could provide clues on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy moves.
• The chances of a Federal Reserve rate cut in March are currently at 64%, down significantly from the nearly 90% probability seen just a week ago.
• Analysts pointed to May as likely being the start of a tightening cycle as the U.S. labor market remains tight and inflation remains above the central bank’s 2% target.
• On the data front, a report on Tuesday showed that the U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed in November as imports of consumer goods fell amid a decline in domestic demand.
• The dollar held onto its recent gains against most major currencies, but fell against the Australian dollar.
• Gold prices settled flat on Wednesday as investors remained cautious ahead of the release of key U.S. inflation data that could shed some light on the path of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
• Traders will shift their focus to the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) report on Thursday, which is expected to show rising inflation. A U.S. official report showed that consumers expect inflation to decline, while Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said the U.S. central bank’s monetary policy appears “sufficiently tight.”
• Oil prices rose for the second day in a row on Wednesday after an industry report showed a larger-than-expected decline in crude oil inventories in the United States, the world’s largest oil consumer, boosting demand sentiment.