Daily Market Analysis

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

• The dollar index fell to around 104 on Monday as investors avoided making big bets ahead of a busy calendar week, highlighted by the Federal Reserve’s final policy decision for this year.
• Gold fell ahead of central bank meetings and key U.S. data this week.
• The Nikkei index rose as the yen weakened, while Chinese stocks hit their lowest levels in five years.
• Alphabet shares rose 5% after Google unveiled its Gemini artificial intelligence model to compete with ChatGPT.
• Japanese government bond yields rose as investors bet on the Bank of Japan’s departure from negative interest rates.
• Oil continued to gain on the back of U.S. Strategic Reserve purchases. Brent crude traded at $76.50 and West Texas Intermediate at $71.87.
• Bitcoin saw a sharp decline, crashing below $41,000 in the market today.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for the day is proposed, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, could be between 60% and 75%. If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the alternative scenario condition level, the alternative scenario is then immediately activated, and the first scenario prediction gets cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1,999.04

First scenario: Buy gold on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $2,000.96, targeting a price of $2,006.02 and then $2,012.96.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold on the break of $1,992.73, targeting a price of $1,986.28 and then $1,978.92.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $71.91 per barrel

First scenario: Buy oil on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $72.17, targeting a price of $72.62 and then $73.20.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil on the break of $71.49, targeting a price of $70.97 and then $70.38.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.07679

First scenario: Sell EURUSD on the break of $1.07573, targeting a price of $1.07414 and then $1.07201.
Alternative scenario: Buy EURUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.07801, targeting a price of $1.07985 and then $1.08210.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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GBPUSD

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.25431

First scenario: Sell GBPUSD on the break of $1.25252, targeting a price of $1.25054 and then $1.24830.
Alternative scenario: Buy GBPUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.25588, targeting a price of $1.25874 and then $1.26095.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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NAS100

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $16,284

First scenario: Sell Nasdaq on the break of $16,240, targeting a price of $16,199 and then $16,155.
Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $16,300, targeting a price of $16339 and then 16385.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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Economic Calendar

(Times are in GMT+3)

 

• No important economic data released today

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

• The dollar index fell to around 104 on Monday as investors avoided making big bets ahead of a busy calendar week, highlighted by the Federal Reserve’s final policy decision for this year.
• Investors are also looking to data on inflation, retail sales, and business activity in the United States this week to better measure economic expectations and interest rates, among other things.
• Meanwhile, the dollar index gained some ground on Friday after a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report gave the Federal Reserve some breathing room in fighting inflation before it begins to cut interest rates.
• The report showed that nearly 200,000 jobs were added to the U.S. economy in November, above market expectations of 180,000, leading to a decline in bets on a rate cut in March, while bets on a rate cut in May remained the same.
• Gold prices fell further on Monday as the dollar held steady, with investors looking to several meetings of major central banks and the release of U.S. inflation data this week for more clarity on the path of interest rates.
• Oil prices rose on Monday to extend gains for a second session as U.S. efforts to replenish strategic reserves provided some support, despite continued concerns about a glut of crude supply and weak growth in fuel demand next year.