Daily Market Analysis

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

• Dollar gains amid safe-haven demand
• The dollar has strengthened as investors seek a safe haven amid escalating tensions in the Middle East.
• Gold, often considered a safe haven, surged sharply from its lowest point in seven months, recorded last Friday.
• Moreover, Middle East tensions have boosted prices of oil, bonds, the dollar, and the yen.
• Oil prices surged by over $4 as markets in the Middle East experienced turbulence. Brent crude traded at $87.65, and West Texas Intermediate at $84.77.
• Bitcoin remained largely unaffected by the events, maintaining its volatility at levels above $27.5 thousand.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for the day is proposed, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, could be between 60% and 75%. If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the alternative scenario condition level, the alternative scenario is then immediately activated, and the first scenario prediction gets cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on classical technical analysis.

 

 

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GOLD

 

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1,852.79
First scenario: Buy gold on the break when stable by closing the candle above $1,854.31, targeting a price of $1,858.69 and then $1,863.19.

Alternative scenario: Sell gold on the break of $1,848.44, targeting a price of $1,843.17 and then $1,838.17.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $81.25 per barrel

First scenario: Buying oil on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $87.76, targeting a price of $88.22 and then $88.76.
Alternative scenario: Selling oil on the break of $87.13, targeting a price of $86.67 and then $86.23.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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EURUSD

 

 

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.05535

First scenario: Sell EURUSD on the break of $1.05473, targeting a price of $1.05313 and then $1.05140.
Alternative scenario: Buy EURUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.05703, targeting a price of $1.05890 and then $1.06099.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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GBPUSD

 

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.21992
First scenario: Sell GBPUSD on the break when staying below $1.21903, targeting a price of $1.21705 and then $1.21481.

Alternative scenario: Buy GBPUSD on the break when stable by closing the candle above the levels of $1.22239, targeting a price of $1.22524 and then $1.22746.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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NAS100

 

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $14,986

First scenario: Sell Nasdaq on the break of $14,963, targeting a price of $14,909 and then $14,837.
Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $15,044, targeting a price of $15,105 and then $15,168.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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Economic Calendar

(Times are in GMT+3)

 

• No significant economic data for today

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

• The dollar rises above 106 amid Middle East geopolitical risks
• The dollar index saw an uptick beyond 106 on Monday, halting a three-day decline. This shift was ignited by the conflict between Israel and Hamas, escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East, and driving increased demand for the US currency as a safe haven.
• Over the weekend, the Palestinian militant group Hamas launched a sudden attack on Israel, prompting a series of retaliatory strikes that resulted in the loss of more than 1,000 lives on both sides.
• Investors are also cautious of a broader conflict amid allegations of Iran’s involvement in the attacks.
• Simultaneously, the dollar lost nearly 1% against a basket of its counterparts over the past three sessions as traders scaled back their bets on further monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve.
• These losses occurred even after data released on Friday showed an unexpected increase of 336,000 jobs in September, providing additional evidence that the US economy can withstand higher interest rates for an extended period.
• Gold prices surged more than 1% on Monday as the intense clashes between Israel and Hamas over the weekend heightened the risk of a broader conflict in the Middle East. This turmoil spurred a rush toward safe-haven investments like bullion.
• On Sunday, Israel launched airstrikes in the Palestinian Gaza Strip, resulting in hundreds of casualties , in response to one of the bloodiest attacks in its history when the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) targeted Israeli towns on Saturday.
• Crude oil prices jumped over $4 per barrel in early Asian trading on Monday as the violent military confrontations between Israeli forces and Hamas over the weekend worsened the political uncertainty throughout the Middle East.