enDaily Analysis 09/08/2024
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The dollar index held its recent advance around 103.2 on Friday, hovering near a one-week high after better-than-expected U.S. jobless claims data eased fears of an economic slowdown.
-China’s central bank again refrains from buying gold in July, gold falls to nearly $2,420
Gold fell towards $2,420 an ounce on Friday after rising about 2% in the previous session.
However, gold continues to benefit from ongoing geopolitical risks and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
The yellow metal’s appeal as a safe haven has been boosted by rising geopolitical tensions, with markets anticipating retaliatory strikes by Iran against Israel and a rare Ukrainian attack on Russia.
-Moreover, expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September remained, although investors have now tempered their expectations, with the market divided on whether the US central bank will implement a 50 basis point cut or a more modest 25 basis point cut.
The shift came on the heels of a sharp drop in initial weekly jobless claims in the United States, which eased concerns that a weak labor market could signal a recession, and was in line with relief from the Institute for Supply Management’s strong services PMI for July.
Gold is expected to decline during the week, reversing the strong gains it made in the previous week.
-Investor fears of a recession have eased somewhat in light of better-than-expected U.S. data and gains on Wall Street overnight.
They added that markets had already priced in expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, and sentiment was now more cautious about gold.
Asian stocks set to end tough week higher, yen under pressure
Asian stocks ended a tough week on a high note as Japanese shares came close to recouping all of Monday’s huge losses, while the yen fell again as markets discounted the prospect of a major U.S. interest rate cut.
Oil is heading for weekly gains, with Brent crude trading at $79.00 and WTI at $75.00.
Moreover, the prospect of Iran launching a retaliatory strike against Israel, in response to the assassination of a Hamas leader in Tehran last week, could escalate the conflict in the Middle East and raise concerns about regional oil supplies.
Meanwhile, Qatar, Egypt and the United States urged Israel and Hamas to resume ceasefire negotiations.
Concerns about supplies have been heightened by unrest at Libya’s largest oil field, the Sharara oilfield, and a rare Ukrainian attack on Russia.
Crude oil prices were also supported by data on Wednesday, which showed that weekly crude inventories issued by the US Energy Information Administration fell more than expected to a six-month low.
-Bitcoin price gained momentum to move above $58,000 and $60,000. Bitcoin price is up more than 10% and indicates more upside in the near term.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2418.47
Scenario 1: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2426.36, targeting 2432.79 and 2439.92
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2414.98, targeting 2408.98 and then 2402.30
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Down (break not confirmed)
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $75.22 per barrel Scenario 1: Sell oil with a break and stability by closing a candle below $74.92 levels, targeting $74.39 and then $73.81
Alternative scenario: Buy oil by breaking the $75.59 level, targeting $76.06 and then $76.63.
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
EURUSD
General trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.09251
First scenario: Buy the Euro-Dollar by breaking 1.09328, targeting 1.09513 and then 1.09737.
Alternative scenario: Sell the EUR/USD with a break and stability by closing a candle below 1.09101, targeting 1.08941 and then 1.08728.
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
GBPUSD
Trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.27653
Scenario 1: Buy the pound dollar with a break and stability above the 1.27680 level, targeting the price of 1.27821 and then 1.28021.
Alternative scenario: Selling the pound dollar with a break and stability with a close below 1.27463, targeting 1.27322 and then 1.27144
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
NAS100
Trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 18502
Scenario 1: Selling the Nasdaq with a break and stability with a close below 18421, targeting a price of 18297 and then 18190
Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close above 18578 with a target price of 18682 then 18800
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
-There is no important economic data released today.
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index held onto its recent advance around 103.2 on Friday, hovering near a one-week high after better-than-expected U.S. jobless claims data eased fears of an economic slowdown.
Initial jobless claims fell 17,000 to a seasonally adjusted 233,000 last week, the biggest drop in about 11 months and below expectations of 240,000, data showed on Thursday.
Markets cut bets on a Fed rate cut after the data, with the odds of a 50 basis point rate cut in September falling to 54% from 69% earlier in the week.
The dollar is set to end the week little changed as the market recovers from Monday’s sell-off, with the safe-haven yen and Swiss franc retreating from recent highs amid an improving macroeconomic outlook.
Gold demand in India rose this week on a price correction, although market volatility prompted some buyers to postpone purchases, while premiums in China rose on some safe-haven buying.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures fell around $76.3 a barrel on Friday but were set to post their first weekly gain in five weeks, supported by positive U.S. jobs data that eased fears of a U.S. recession.
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