Daily Market Analysis

 

 

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

 

The dollar index hovered around 104.2 on Tuesday, remaining in a sideways trading range as investors cautiously awaited key US inflation data and the latest minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting this week for clarity on the expected rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year.

Gold hovers near record high as market focus shifts to US data and Fed minutes

• Gold hit an all-time high of $2353.79 an ounce on Monday
• Silver hits highest level since June 2021
• US Consumer Price Index and Fed minutes due Wednesday

“Gold has been the preferred asset in financial markets, with buying flows from central banks and speculative flows driving the price to regularly higher levels,” said Tim Waterer, senior market analyst.

The Fed kept interest rates steady at 5.25%-5.50%, but policymakers signaled they still expect to cut them by three-quarters of a percentage point by the end of 2024 at their March policy meeting.

Following the strong US jobs report last Friday, the market has pared back expectations for the number of rate cuts this year to two, from three to four a few weeks ago.

The Chinese central bank added 160,000 ounces of gold to its reserves in March, in line with the market view that continued demand from the official sector has supported the recent rise in gold.

Yen feels the strain as US Treasury yields rise

The dollar was hesitant on Tuesday, failing to gain any tangible support from rising US Treasury yields, although that kept pressure on the yen, which remained near multi-decade lows and left traders on alert for any signs of intervention.

Mark Zuckerberg makes $26 million an hour this year to move into the top 3 richest people

Oil prices rise as hopes for Middle East ceasefire fade

• Brent crude trades at $90.00 and West Texas Intermediate crude at $85.00
• A new round of ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas in Cairo ended a multi-session rally on Monday, pushing Brent to its first decline in five sessions and WTI to its first in seven sessions on the back of a possible easing of geopolitical risks.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday that an unspecified date has been set for an Israeli invasion of the Gaza Strip of Rafah, “ending the market’s brief hopes yesterday that geopolitical tensions in the region could ease.”

Hamas said early Tuesday that the Israeli proposal it received from Qatari and Egyptian mediators did not meet any of the demands of the Palestinian factions. But Hamas said it would study the proposal before responding to the mediators.

Bitcoin price moves higher above the $71,200 resistance level. BTC shows positive signs and could soon extend its gains above $72,500.

The dollar index has fallen by about 13% against a basket of major currencies from its 20-year high last year, reaching a 15-month low.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2344.43

The first scenario: Buy gold at a break and hold above 2347.71, with a target price of 2354.14 and 2361.47. Alternative scenario: Sell gold at a break and hold below 2336.33, with a price target of 2329.88 and then 2322.53.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $85.95 per barrel

The first scenario: Buying oil at a break and holding steady by closing the candle at the highest level at $86.37, targeting a price of $86.84, then 87.40. Alternative scenario: Selling oil at a break of $85.69, targeting a price of $85.17, then 84.58.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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EURUSD

 

General trend: – Bearish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.08560

The first scenario: sell the euro/dollar at a break of 1.08471, targeting a price of 1.08311, then 1.08098. Alternative scenario: buy the euro/dollar at a break of 1.08698, targeting a price of 1.08883, then 1.09107.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

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GBPUSD

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.26555

The first scenario: Buy the pound dollar at a break and hold at the highest level of 1.26688, targeting a price of 1.26974, then 1.27196. Alternative scenario: sell the pound dollar at a break, and hold at a close below 1.26353, targeting a price of 1.26155, then 1.25931.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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NAS100

 

Trend: down

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 18303

The first scenario: Selling the Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close below 18268, targeting the price of 18227 then 18183. The alternative scenario: Buying the Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close above 18328, targeting the price of 18367 then 18413.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

There is no important data released today.

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index was initially around 104.2 on Tuesday, and remained in a sideways trading range as investors cautiously awaited key US inflation data and the latest minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting this week for clarity on the expected rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year.

Data last week showed that the US economy added 303,000 jobs in March, far exceeding expectations.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari also reiterated his comments from last week, saying the central bank cannot stop fighting inflation amid rising oil prices.

Markets are now pricing in about 60 basis points of total easing from the Fed this year, down from previous expectations of 75 basis points, and bets on a rate cut in June have receded.

The dollar has been stable across the board, but is at risk of breaking through levels against the yen, which could prompt the Japanese authorities to intervene.

Gold prices rose on Tuesday, hovering near a record high hit in the previous session, supported by strong buying from central banks, while investors await the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting and inflation data for new clues.

Oil prices rose on Tuesday after hopes that talks between Israel and Hamas would lead to a ceasefire in Gaza and ease tensions in the Middle East faded.