Daily Market Analysis

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

• The dollar index steadied around 104.1 on Friday, holding onto gains from the previous session as strong U.S. jobs data further weighed on sentiment for rate cuts.
• Gold steadies as dollar strength counters safe-haven demand
• Israel strikes Rafah after rejecting Hamas truce proposal
• Palladium to be hit hardest due to limited uses
• Gold down 0.3% so far this week
• Fed hesitant to cut rates until more confident on inflation
• Oil on track for weekly gains after Israel rejects ceasefire offer; Brent at $81.00, WTI at $76.00
• Russia exports more crude in February after refinery attacks

• Fed’s Barkin says:
  • Economic data has been noisy across the board.
  • However, I’m cautious about reading too much into the numbers at the start of the year.
  • I wouldn’t take too many signals from any one month at this point.
  • We have time to be patient on pricing changes.

• Bitcoin price gains momentum above $45,500 resistance level. BTC tests $46,000 and could extend gains towards $48,000 resistance level.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: bearish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2034.61

The first scenario: Selling gold at a fraction and holding below 2030.55, with a target price of 2024.10 and 2016.75. Alternative scenario: Buying gold at a break and holding above 2038.78, with a price targeting of 2043.84 and then 2050.78.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $76.15 per barrel

The first scenario: selling oil at a break and holding steady by closing the candle below the $75.70 level, targeting a price of $75.18, then 74.60. Alternative scenario: buying oil at a break of the $76.38 level, targeting a price of $76.85, then 77.41.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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EURUSD

 

General trend: – Bearish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.07768 scenario

First: Sell the Euro/Dollar at a break of 1.07636, targeting a price of 1.07476, then 1.07263. Alternative scenario: Buy the Euro/Dollar at a break of 1.07863, targeting a price of 1.08048, then 1.08272.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

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GBPUSD

 

Trend: down

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.26240

The first scenario: Selling the pound dollar at a fraction and holding below the level of 1.26020, targeting the price of 1.25822, then 1.25598. Alternative scenario: Buying the pound dollar at a break, and holding steady by closing above 1.26356, targeting the price of 1.26642, then 1.26863.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages leads to a decline

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NAS100

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 17863

The first scenario: Buying Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close above 17893, targeting a price of 17933 then 17979. Alternative scenario: Selling Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close below 17834, targeting a price of 17792 then 17749.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

• There are no important economic data today

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

• The dollar index steadied around 104.1 on Friday, holding onto gains from the previous session as strong U.S. jobs data further weighed on sentiment for rate cuts.
• Initial jobless claims fell by 9,000 to 218,000, below market expectations of 220,000, while continuing claims fell to 1.871 million. Federal Reserve officials also pushed back against bets on early rate cuts this week, with Boston Fed President Susan Collins saying the current policy stance is well-positioned and suggesting it would be appropriate to start tapering policy later in the year.
• Market expectations have shifted, with the probability of a Fed rate cut in March now below 20%, down significantly from the two-thirds chance seen at the start of the year.
• The dollar index is on track for a gain of about 0.2% this week, its fourth straight weekly advance.
• Gold prices steadied on Friday, with Chinese markets closed for the Lunar New Year holiday, while a stronger U.S. dollar countered safe-haven demand driven by Middle East tensions.
• Concerns about the Middle East remained after Israeli forces fired into areas in the southern border town of Rafah after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected a truce proposal offered by Hamas.
• Oil prices were little changed on Friday, on track for weekly gains, as Middle East tensions continued after Israel rejected a ceasefire offer from Hamas.