Daily Market Analysis

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

• The dollar index held steady around 103.6 on Friday as investors looked ahead to the key monthly jobs report, which will measure the state of the U.S. labor market and the future path of interest rates.
• Gold is on track for its first weekly decline in four weeks; U.S. jobs data in focus.
• China’s crude oil imports fell 9% in November.
• Brent and West Texas Intermediate are on track to fall by around 6% during the week.
• Oil prices are headed for a weekly decline amid signs of weak Asian demand, with Brent crude trading at $75.50 and West Texas Intermediate at $70.87.
• U.S. crude production remains above 13 million barrels per day.
• Bitcoin fell to $43,000 during the day after its rapid rise to nearly $45,000 earlier this week.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for the day is proposed, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, could be between 60% and 75%. If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the alternative scenario condition level, the alternative scenario is then immediately activated, and the first scenario prediction gets cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $2,031.59

First scenario: Buy gold on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $2,035.52, targeting a price of $2,040.58 and then $2,047.52.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold on the break of $2,027.29, targeting a price of $2,020.84 and then $2,013.29.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $70.62 per barrel

First scenario: Buy oil on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $70.90, targeting a price of $71.36 and then $71.93.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil on the break of $70.22 level, targeting a price of $69.70 and then $69.11.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.07909

First scenario: Sell EURUSD on the break of $1.07801, targeting a price of $1.07641 and then $1.07428.
Alternative scenario: Buy EURUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.08029, targeting a price of $1.08213 and then $1.08438.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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GBPUSD

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.25919

First scenario: Sell GBPUSD on the break of $1.25729, targeting a price of $1.25532 and then $1.25308.
Alternative scenario: Buy GBPUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.26065, targeting a price of $1.26351 and then $1.26572.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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NAS100

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $16,229

First scenario: Sell Nasdaq on the break of $16,191, targeting a price of $16,149 and then $16,105.
Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $16,250, targeting a price of $16,289 and then $16,335.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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Economic Calendar

(Times are in GMT+3)

 

• Europe: German Consumer Price Index (November) at 10:00
• United States: Average Hourly Earnings Index (November) at 16:30
• United States: Non-Farm Payrolls Report (November) at 16:30
• United States: Unemployment Rate (November) at 16:30

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

• The dollar index held steady around 103.6 on Friday as investors looked ahead to the key monthly jobs report, which will measure the state of the U.S. labor market and the future path of interest rates.
• The non-farm payrolls are expected to rise by 170,000 in November, with the unemployment rate remaining at its highest level in 22 months at 3.9% and wage growth slowing to 4%, its lowest level since June 2021.
• Meanwhile, the dollar index lost half a percent on Thursday, as data released so far this week showed signs of a slowdown in the labor market.
• Initial jobless claims rose less than expected last week, U.S. employers announced more job cuts in November, and the number of job openings in October was the lowest level since March 2021.
• The dollar held onto its recent losses against other major currencies, but continued to weaken against the yen amid signs of a policy shift from the Bank of Japan.
• Gold price is set to record its first weekly decline in four weeks after the dollar rose, but traded steadily on Friday as investors remained cautious ahead of the key jobs print scheduled later in the day to measure the likelihood of a U.S. rate cut by March.
• Oil prices rose in early trading on Friday but are on track to decline by six percent this week to hover near their lowest levels in six months as investors worry about weak demand for energy in Asia as well as rising U.S. crude production.