Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

Dollar steadies after Fed decision

The dollar index held steady around 104.5 on Friday as investors assessed the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate decision.

Gold holds firm after Fed rate cut

The U.S. Federal Reserve cut its federal funds target range to 4.50%-4.75% on Thursday, the second cut this year, as policymakers noted signs of weakness in the labor market.

They also acknowledged that inflation is close to the central bank’s target of 2%, but remains somewhat high.

-In his press conference, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell refrained from offering specific guidance on future interest rate moves, underscoring the central bank’s flexibility to adapt to incoming economic data.

Powell added that the results of Tuesday’s presidential election, with the newly elected administration implementing policies such as broad-based tariffs, tax cuts, and the potential deportation of immigrants on a large scale, are unlikely to affect the direction of Fed policy in the near term.

Gold rises on Fed rate cut

Gold rose in early Asian morning trading, supported by an overnight interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which increases the appeal of the non-interest-bearing precious metal. Meanwhile,

Concerns over the sustainability of the US fiscal position are likely to be more supportive of gold prices in the medium term, Bank of America’s global commodity research team said in a research report. However, the team added that a stronger US dollar and higher US yields are negative factors for the precious metal in the near term.

Asian stocks rise, led by Wall Street; dollar falls after Fed rate cut

Fed Chair Powell Says He Won’t ‘Second-Hand’ on Trump Policies

-U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar fell from multi-month highs.

S&P 500, Nasdaq hit all-time highs, Dow Jones flat

-Global stock index hits record high, set for 3.3% weekly gain

-China stocks rise on stimulus hopes to counter Trump tariff threat

Oil prices fall as Hurricane Rafael is expected to weaken, with Brent crude trading at $75.00 and WTI at $71.00.

-For the week, Brent crude is set to rise 3.1% while WTI crude is set to rise 4.1%.

Hurricane Rafael, which has shut down 391,214 barrels per day of U.S. crude oil production, is expected to move slowly west over the Gulf of Mexico and away from U.S. fields while weakening from Friday and through the weekend, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

Prices were supported on Thursday by expected actions by the new Trump administration such as imposing tougher sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, which could limit their supplies to global markets.

“We see Trump adopting a relatively pragmatic approach to policy, either choosing not to pursue more radical policy shifts, or being held back by institutional constraints or the influence of more moderate policy advisors,” BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, said in a note on Friday.

The downward pressure came from data showing that crude imports into China, the world’s largest oil importer, fell 9% in October, the sixth straight month of year-on-year declines, as well as a rise in U.S. crude inventories.

“The Trump administration’s impact on oil market fundamentals in 2025 is likely to be somewhat limited,” BMI Research said.

-Bitcoin price is gaining momentum above $75,000. Bitcoin price is rising and could target a move above the $77,000 resistance area in the near term.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: Upward

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2655.79

Scenario 1: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2687.90, targeting 2699.49 and 2706.62

Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2681.68, targeting 2675.23 and then 2667.40

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: Upward

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $71.42 per barrel

Scenario 1: Buy oil by breaking the $72.05 level, targeting $72.51 and then $73.08.

Alternative scenario: Sell oil with a break and stability by closing a candle below the $71.37 levels, targeting $70.85 and then $70.26.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: Down

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.07752

Scenario 1: Sell the EUR/USD by breaking 1.07671, targeting 1.07511 and then 1.07298.

Alternative scenario: Buy the EUR/USD with a break and hold with a candle closing above 1.07898, targeting 1.08083 and then 1.08307.

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

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GBPUSD

 

Trend: Down

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.29660

Scenario 1: Selling the pound dollar with a break and stability below the level of 1.29503, targeting the price of 1.29262 and then 1.29040

Alternative scenario: Buy the pound dollar with a break and hold with a close above 1.29803, targeting 1.30043 and then 1.30330.

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

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NAS100

 

Trend: Upward

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 20607

Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close above 20646, targeting 20750 then 20868

Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close below 20490 with a target price of 20365 then 20258

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

-From the United States of America, US crude oil stocks 18:30

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index rose above 104 on Wednesday, recovering from losses in the previous two sessions as investors reacted to early results from the U.S. presidential election, with Trump gaining a lead over Harris.

The race has gone largely as expected, with the outcome now coming down to seven key swing states.

Investors are also focusing on control of Congress, as the results could have major implications for future spending and tax policies.

In recent weeks, the dollar has been supported by what are referred to as “Trump deals,” as his economic policies are often seen as inflationary.

On the monetary policy front, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to deliver a more cautious 25 basis point rate cut on Thursday, as it tries to balance persistent inflationary pressures with a slowing labor market.

Markets are also pricing in the possibility of another rate cut in December.

The dollar rose against major currencies, making its biggest gains against the euro and the yen.

Gold held steady around $2,740 an ounce on Wednesday, as markets closely watched the outcome of the U.S. presidential election.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures fell below $72 a barrel on Wednesday, ending a five-day winning streak, as markets closely watched the outcome of the U.S. election.