Daily Market Analysis

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

• The dollar held steady ahead of Powell’s remarks, as investors looked to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech for clues about the central bank’s future policy plans.
• Gold lacked momentum as the spotlight shifted to Powell’s speech.More tightening will be needed, says Powell’s colleague Bowman.
• Palladium hits lowest level since October 2018.
• Oil prices struggle after hitting three-month lows, on growing demand concerns. Brent crude trades at $81.50 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude trades at $77.07 a barrel.
• API shows large increase in U.S. crude stockpiles – sources.
• China’s exports continue to fall.
• Bitcoin made another attempt to break above the $36,000 resistance level. BTC struggled again and is now correcting downwards towards the $35,200 support level.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for the day is proposed, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, could be between 60% and 75%. If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the alternative scenario condition level, the alternative scenario is then immediately activated, and the first scenario prediction gets cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1,967.69  

First scenario: Buy gold on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1972.45, targeting a price of $1,977.51 and then $1,984.45.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold on the break of $1,964.22, targeting a price of $1,957.77 and then $1,950.53.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $77.05 per barrel

First scenario: Buy oil on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $77.31, targeting a price of $77.76 and then $78.42.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil on the break of $76.89, targeting a price of $76.48 and then $75.99.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.06902

First scenario: Sell EURUSD on the break of $1.06817, targeting a price of $1.06657 and then $1.06444.
Alternative scenario: Buy EURUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.07044, targeting a price of $1.07234 and then $1.07444.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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GBPUSD

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.22820

First scenario: Sell GBPUSD on the break of $1.22700, targeting a price of $1.22502 and then $1.22278.
Alternative scenario: Buy GBPUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.23037, targeting a price of $1.23323 and then $1.23543.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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NAS100

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $15,355

First scenario: Sell Nasdaq on the break of $15,325, targeting a price of $15,271 and then $15,199.
Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $15,406, targeting a price of $15,467 and then $15,530.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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Economic Calendar

(Times are in GMT+3)

 

• Germany: Inflation Rate at 10:00
• Europe: Monthly and Annual Retail Sales at 13:00
• United States: Speech by Jerome Powell at 17:15

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

• The S&P 500 index rose about 0.5% so far this week, as traders remain divided on whether U.S. interest rates have already peaked.
• Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said it is premature to declare victory over inflation, while Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said a soft landing is still on the table.
• On the data front, the U.S. recorded a larger-than-expected trade deficit in September, with import growth outpacing exports.
• Meanwhile, the dollar fell 1% last week after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady and adopted a more dovish tone, while weak U.S. jobs data boosted bets on a peak in interest rates.
• The dollar gained some ground against most major currencies, but it gained more ground against the Australian dollar as the Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates cautiously.
• Gold struggled for momentum on Wednesday as investors looked for more clarity on interest rates from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell after mixed messages from a range of U.S. central bankers.
• Oil prices stumbled on Wednesday after falling to their lowest levels in more than three months in the previous session, weighed down by concerns about falling demand in the United States and China, the world’s top two oil consumers.