enDaily Analysis 08/10/2024
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The dollar index held steady around 102.4 on Tuesday, trading near its highest since mid-August as investors recalibrated their expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut after a stronger-than-expected September jobs report.
Gold falls for fifth session
Markets are currently pricing in an 86% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by a modest 25 basis points in November.
-Low interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing bullion assets.
Traders are now looking ahead to key CPI and PPI data due this week to gauge the progress of price pressures, along with FOMC minutes and comments from several Fed officials for further guidance.
Meanwhile, gold’s safe-haven appeal is supporting its bullish bias, driven by escalating violence in the Middle East. Elsewhere, China’s central bank refrained from buying gold for its reserves for a fifth straight month in September.
-Gold steady; markets await US CPI
-Gold is steady at the start of the Asian session. Softened expectations of a Fed rate cut after an unexpectedly strong nonfarm payrolls report are limiting the rise in precious metals. Ivanova added that there is now an 80% chance of a 25 basis point cut in the market instead of 50 basis points, and that markets are focusing on the US consumer price index report due out this week. Spot gold was steady at $2,642.67 per ounce.
Chinese stocks returned from a long holiday to a strong start on Tuesday, although the optimism did not extend to regional equity markets as Beijing failed to provide further details on its massive stimulus.
-Brent declines after the rise that reached the top of $80 per barrel, with Brent crude trading at $79.00 and West Texas crude at $75.00.
However, President Biden recently urged against strikes on Iranian oil fields, and suggested considering alternative measures.
-In addition, the easing of supply concerns is due to OPEC’s excess capacity and the stability of global crude oil supplies.
-Concerns over demand, particularly from China, remain, as markets anticipate further policy guidance to support economic activity and boost demand, following the announcement last month of long-awaited stimulus measures as the Chinese market reopened after a week-long holiday.
Bitcoin price struggled to continue rising above the $64,400 level. Bitcoin is correcting gains and is trading near the $62,500 support area.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2638.94
Scenario 1: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2649.58, targeting 2656.01 and 2663.14
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2638.20 with a target price of 2631.75 and then 2623.92
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $75.45 per barrel
Scenario 1: Buy oil by breaking the $75.66 level, targeting $76.13 and then $76.70.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil with a break and stability by closing a candle below the $74.99 levels, targeting $74.46 and then $73.88
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
EURUSD
General trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.09834
Scenario 1: Sell the EUR/USD by breaking 1.09701, targeting 1.09541 and then 1.09328.
Alternative scenario: Buy the EUR/USD with a break and hold with a candle closing above 1.09928, targeting 1.10113 and then 1.10337.
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
GBPUSD
Trend: Down
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.30933 Scenario 1: Sell the pound dollar with a break and stability below the level of 1.30740, targeting the price of 1.30499 and then 1.30277
Alternative scenario: Buy GBP/USD with a break and hold at a buy close of 1.31035 with a target price of 1.31280 then 1.31567
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
NAS100
Trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 19959 Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close above 20059 with a target price of 20163 then 20281
Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq with break and hold with close below 19903 with target price 19778 then 19671
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
-There is no event listed for today.
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index held steady around 102.4 on Tuesday, trading near its highest since mid-August as investors recalibrated their expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut after a stronger-than-expected September jobs report.
Markets now see an 87% chance that the Fed will cut rates by about 25 basis points in November, with no chance of another half-point cut, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.
The dollar also tracked strength in U.S. Treasury yields, with benchmark 10-year yields rising above 4% for the first time since early August. Investors now look to the latest Federal Reserve minutes on Wednesday and the consumer price index report on Thursday for further guidance on interest rate expectations.
Elsewhere, rising tensions in the Middle East continued to boost demand for the dollar as a safe haven.
Gold fell below $2,640 an ounce on Tuesday, falling for a fifth straight session, after a better-than-expected U.S. jobs report tempered expectations for more aggressive interest rate cuts by the U.S. central bank.
Brent crude futures fell to around $80.3 a barrel on Tuesday, likely on profit-taking after hitting their highest in more than a month, driven by escalating conflict in the Middle East. Investors are closely watching Israel’s possible response to last week’s missile attack by Iran, with Iranian oil facilities seen as a potential target.
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