enDaily Analysis 08/08/2024
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The dollar index rose to around 103.2 on Wednesday, extending gains from the previous session as traders backed away from bets on an emergency rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
Gold rises to about $2390
The recent weak US jobs report has led traders to expect around 105 basis points of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by the end of the year, with markets fully pricing in a rate cut in September, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Low interest rates enhance the appeal of non-interest-bearing precious metals such as gold.
Investors are now awaiting jobless claims due on Thursday for confirmation of whether economic data, especially employment figures, are slowing.
Meanwhile, the risks of escalation in the Middle East conflict continued to support bullion’s upward momentum.
Elsewhere, official data released on Wednesday showed that the People’s Bank of China refrained from adding more to its gold reserves for the third straight month in July.
Gold is stable at the beginning of the Asian session, supported by the possibility of interest rate cuts by central banks.
-Which would enhance the attractiveness of the precious metal that does not generate interest.
-An analyst says that the outlook for gold remains positive. He also says that gold prices may find support, thanks to the expected easing cycles from some central banks.
He also added that the risk of conflict escalating in the Middle East could provide upward momentum for the precious metal.
Asian stocks fell as technology shares retreated, and the yen rose in volatile trade.
Asian stock markets swung between gains and losses on Thursday, while the yen and U.S. bonds struggled to recover and global investors struggled to find their footing in a wild week for markets.
Oil prices rise due to tensions in the Middle East and a decline in US crude inventories, with Brent crude trading at $78.00 and West Texas Intermediate at $74.00.
The two benchmarks have recovered from near 2024 lows hit earlier this week on the back of a U.S. recession and a sell-off in global stocks.
The possibility of supply disruptions in the Middle East has worried markets after senior members of Hamas and Hezbollah were killed last week, raising the possibility of Iran launching retaliatory strikes against Israel.
“The market is nervous waiting for a response from Iran. An aggressive response could lead to a wider conflict in the Middle East and threaten oil supplies. This has been exacerbated by production problems in Libya,” ANZ Research said in a note.
Libya’s National Oil Corporation has declared force majeure at the Sharara oilfield as of Tuesday, according to a statement, adding that the company has gradually reduced production at the field due to protests.
-While no supplies have been affected so far amid rising tensions in the Middle East, attacks on ships in the Red Sea have forced tankers to take longer routes, meaning more oil remains in the water for longer.
-Bitcoin price is consolidating near the $57,500 area. Bitcoin may gain bullish momentum if it breaks the $58,000 resistance area in the near term.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2397.75
Scenario 1: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2401.09, targeting 2407.51 and 2414.64
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2389.70 with a target price of 2383.26 and then 2377.03
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $74.28 per barrel
Scenario 1: Sell oil with a break and stability by closing a candle below the $74.14 levels, targeting $73.62 and then $73.03.
Alternative scenario: Buy oil by breaking the $74.82 level, targeting $75.29 and then $75.85.
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
EURUSD
General trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.09360
First scenario: Buy the Euro-Dollar by breaking 1.09466, targeting 1.09650 and then 1.09875.
Alternative scenario: Sell the EUR/USD with a break and stability with a candle closing below 1.09238, targeting 1.09078 and then 1.08865.
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
GBPUSD
Trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.27029
Scenario 1: Selling the pound dollar with a break and stability below the 1.26905 level, targeting the price of 1.26764 and then 1.26586
Alternative scenario: Buy the pound dollar with a break and hold with a close above 1.27122, targeting 1.27264 and then 1.27463.
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
NAS100
Trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 17980
Scenario 1: Selling the Nasdaq with a break and stability with a close below 17886, targeting a price of 17762 and then 17654
Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq with break and hold with close above 18043 price 18146 then 18264
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
-From the United States of America, unemployment claims rates are 15:30.
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index rose to around 103.2 on Wednesday, extending gains from the previous session as traders backed away from bets on an emergency Federal Reserve rate cut.
Earlier this week, the index fell to its lowest level in about seven months after a weak jobs report on Friday raised fears of a U.S. recession, prompting speculation that the Federal Reserve could take emergency steps to lower borrowing costs.
However, analysts have suggested that the recent global sell-off may be an overreaction, with Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon telling Bloomberg he doesn’t expect the Fed to take any action before September.
Meanwhile, markets are still betting on a further 50 basis points of rate cuts from the Fed in September, and more than 100 basis points of total monetary easing this year.
The dollar rose against the yen and the euro, but lost some ground against the New Zealand and Australian dollars.
Gold rose to around $2,390 an ounce on Thursday, paring losses from the previous session amid expectations of a U.S. interest rate cut and as investors continued to assess the validity of recession fears.
Oil prices rose for a third straight session on Thursday as market concerns over supply risks from rising tensions in the Middle East weighed, while a large draw in U.S. crude inventories also helped the market recover from multi-month lows.
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