Daily Market Analysis

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

The dollar index steadied around 102.7 on Monday, hovering near its lowest levels since mid-January as investors refrained from making big bets ahead of key U.S. inflation data later this week that could shape Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations.

• Gold prices took a breather from a record high on Monday, fueled by a slowdown in the U.S. labor market and dovish comments from the Federal Reserve, as traders await the inflation report for fresh clues on the timing of interest rate cuts.
• Rising geopolitical concerns in the Middle East continue to support safe-haven demand, while signals pointing to a Fed rate cut
• Traders are currently pricing in three to four quarter-point U.S. rate cuts, with a 75% chance of the first coming in June,
• The markets have switched from winter time to summer time.
• Japanese GDP (Quarterly) (Q4) showed a 0.1% increase.
• Oil weakens amid market caution, with Brent crude trading at $81.00 and WTI crude at $77.00.
• Data showed that China’s oil imports fell by about 5.7% to 10.8 million barrels per day in the first two months of the year, compared to 11.44 million barrels per day in December.
• Meanwhile, major oil producers, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq and the UAE, announced last week that they will extend current production cuts until the end of the second quarter.
• Elsewhere, investors continued to monitor the ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas, which have made little progress.
• Bitcoin price hits new record high of $70,000.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2179.84

The first scenario: Buy gold at a break and hold above 2182.51, with a target price of 2187.57 and 2194.51. Alternative scenario: Sell gold at a break and hold below 2174.28, with a price target of 2167.83 and then 2160.48. Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $77.31 per barrel

The first scenario: Buying oil at a break and holding steady by closing the candle at the highest level at $77.57, targeting a price of $78.04, then 78.60. Alternative scenario: Selling oil at a break of $76.89, targeting a price of $76.37, then 75.78. Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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EURUSD

 

General trend:- Bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.09464

The first scenario: Buying Eurodollars at a break of 1.09526, targeting a price of 1.09711, then 1.09935. Alternative scenario: Selling Eurodollars at a break of 1.09299, targeting a price of 1.09139, then 1.08926. Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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GBPUSD

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.28476

The first scenario: Buy the pound dollar at a break and hold at the highest level of 1.28671, targeting a price of 1.28957 then 1.29178. Alternative scenario: sell the pound dollar at a break and hold at a close below 1.28335, targeting a price of 1.28137 then 1.27913. Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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NAS100

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 18264

The first scenario: Buying Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close above 18306, targeting the price of 18345 then 18391. Alternative scenario: Selling Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close below 18246, targeting a price of 18205 then 18161.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

• There is no important data released today.

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index steadied around 102.7 on Monday, hovering near its lowest levels since mid-January as investors refrained from making big bets ahead of key U.S. inflation data later this week that could shape Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations.

• The dollar lost more than 1% last week as Fed Chair Powell told Congress that the central bank still needs to become more confident that inflation is moving sustainably to 2% before cutting interest rates, though it is not far from that point.
• Meanwhile, data on Friday showed that February payrolls beat expectations, but job gains in both January and December were sharply revised lower, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose and wage growth slowed much more than expected.
• Markets are currently not pricing in any Fed rate cuts in March or May, but are betting on a move in June.
• The dollar held onto losses against most major currencies, but remained weaker against the yen amid an upward revision to Japanese fourth-quarter GDP figures.
• A stronger reading of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) could help bolster the case for an early rate cut, supporting gold prices. Fed Chair Powell sounded more confident about cutting rates in the coming months in his testimony to Congress last week.
• West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell to around $77 a barrel on Monday, declining for a third straight session as investors turned cautious ahead of key U.S. inflation data and monthly reports from OPEC and the IEA this week that could steer market expectations.